BMIE Market 10473

Bronx County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	58,855 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,836 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	22,839 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±929 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	58,519 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	21,323 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$52,462 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,611 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,183 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$576,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10473
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+3.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 27–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10473. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.3	66	40%	+26.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.2	64	35%	+22.5
Market Momentum Score	55.8	56	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	58,855	98	40%	+39.4
Median household income (ACS)	52,462	18	40%	+7.2
Households (ACS)	22,839	99	20%	+19.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.1	51	35%	+18.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	91	25%	+22.8
Population (ACS)	58,855	98	20%	+19.7
Median household income (ACS)	52,462	18	20%	+3.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	3.5	60	50%	+29.9
10-year restaurant growth	7.1	51	30%	+15.4
20-year restaurant growth	30.4	52	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 7 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Italian 3 · Caribbean 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Spanish / tapas 2 · African 1 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 16 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Café 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
5 Kings Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	670 Castle Hill Ave	open
Astoria Espresso & Cappuccino	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2381 Lafayette Ave	open
BBQ's Co-op City	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ		open
Blackgal Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1930 Patterson Ave	open
caribe restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	849 Castle Hill Ave	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	1957 Turnbull Ave	open
Crown Fried Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	766 Castle Hill Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1905 Story Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	1650 Bruckner Blvd Bruckner Plaza	open
El Sazon Criollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	682 Castle Hill Ave	open
El Valle Tipico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	849 Castle Hill Ave	open
Faith Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	250 Stephens Ave	open
Frank's Original Pizza Italia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	772 Castle Hill Ave	open
G's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	834 Olmstead Ave	open
Gh fast food and grocery	Quick service	African	845 White Plains Rd	open
Golden City Chinese Kitchen Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		805 Soundview Ave	open
Golden Palace Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		682 Castle Hill Ave	open
Green House Café	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	336 Sunset Blvd	open
Gz Diner Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		622 Castle Hill Ave	open
Hot Millions Gourmet Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	843 Soundview Ave	open
Jade Joy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1642 Bruckner Blvd	open
Jimbo's Hamburger Palace Jimbo's Hamburger Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	912 Soundview Ave	open
Jimmy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	905 White Plains Rd	open
John's Chicken & Burger & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1776 Randall Ave	open
JR Castle Hill Deli Grocery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	708 Castle Hill Ave	open
King Dragon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1749 Randall Ave	open
King Steaks Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		849 Castle Hill Ave	open
Kingston Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	570 Zerega Ave	open
Ko Wong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		935 Castle Hill Ave	open
Krispy Kreme Krispy Kreme Doughnuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	535 Zerega Ave	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	1656 Bruckner Blvd	open
Maravillas Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Latin American (other)	264 Soundview Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1600 Bruckner Blvd	open
Mexzzarella Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	553 Soundview Ave	open
Mi Casita Lounge	Bar		264 Soundview Ave	open
Ms Caridad Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	831 Rosedale Ave	open
New Orleans Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	854 Soundview Ave	open
Pinnacle	Restaurant (service type not stated)		910 Thieriot Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1905 Story Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1600 Bruckner Boulevard	open
Purtouliano's Pizza & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1752 Lafayette Ave	open
Shore Haven Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	622 Castle Hill Ave	open
Smashburger Smashburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1925 Turnbull Ave	open
Smily Food Corner	Quick service		2417 Smithfield Avenue	open
Soundview Slices NYC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	553 Sound View Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	880 White Plains Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1646 Bruckner Blvd	open
Sunrise Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		756 Rosedale Ave	open
Teddy's Cafe & Deli	Café	Coffee	805 Zerega Ave	open
Tl & Jt, Corp.	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	553 Soundview Ave	open
Trupti Food Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1646 Bruckner Blvd	open
Truth Juice Llc	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	220A Soundview Ave	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	905 White Plains Rd	open
Yummy Yummy Chinese Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1811 Randall Ave	open
Latemunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1488 Bruckner Blvd	closed
Quick Pick Foods	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1994 Bruckner Blvd	closed
R Z Community Inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	759 Commonwealth Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	3	9	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	3	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	16	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	24	23	9	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	26	25	9	16	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	27	25	9	14	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	25	22	8	12	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	21	21	6	14	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	23	5	18	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	26	5	21	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	30	29	6	23	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	29	29	6	21	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	27	27	6	20	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	29	28	6	21	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	32	30	7	22	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	29	27	5	21	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	31	29	5	23	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	34	31	6	24	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	32	29	7	21	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	32	27	6	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	33	29	7	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	29	7	19	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	29	5	22	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	30	3	26	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10473. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10472	0.9 mi	90	2023
10474	1.5 mi	23	2023
10462	1.7 mi	127	2023
10459	1.9 mi	63	2023
10460	2.0 mi	46	2023
10465	2.0 mi	62	2023
10461	2.1 mi	123	2023
11356	2.5 mi	51	2023
10455	2.6 mi	74	2023
10456	2.7 mi	53	2023
10457	2.8 mi	66	2023
11371	3.2 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.