BMIE Market 10918

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±892 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,157 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±460 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,647 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,254 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$140,550 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,967 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±227 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$459,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10918
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+114.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 30–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10918. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.7	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.0	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	80.1	80	25%	+20.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,069	73	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	140,550	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	4,157	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.9	27	25%	+6.7
Population (ACS)	12,069	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	140,550	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	114.3	86	20%	+17.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 8 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · Caribbean 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Bar 10 · Quick service 8 · Café 7 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Mamas and Mike	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	35 Brookside Ave	open
Allan's Falafel \| Lunch & Dinner Restaurant in Chester, NY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	115 Main St	open
American House Ice Cream Shack	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1 Winkler Pl	open
Anne Marie's Country Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1398 Kings Hwy	open
Bagel Girls Cafe	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	69 Brookside Ave	open
Brother Bruno's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	78 Brookside Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3 Bryle Pl	open
Cancun Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1396 Kings Hwy	open
Chabad Lubavitch Of Orange County, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1170 State Route 17m Ste 1	open
Chester Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	69 Brookside Ave	open
Chester Village Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches · Italian	69 Brookside Ave #211	open
Chester, Town Of	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1786 Kings Hwy	open
Christopher's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	69 Brookside Ave	open
Clarke's Cafe & Ice Cream	Café · Dessert	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	2927 NY-94	open
Clayton Delaney's	Bar	American	133 Main St	open
Crunch Collision	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 Lehigh Ave	open
Dos Latinos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	78 Brookside Ave Ste 131	open
Dream Line Fondant	Dessert	Dessert	32 Leone Ln	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	78 Brookside Ave	open
El Zapata 3 Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	69 Brookside Ave	open
Frogs End Tavern & Cortile	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	634 Pine Hill Rd	open
Jesters Restaurant & Pub	Casual dining · Bar		109 Brookside Ave	open
Kung Fu Tea Kung Fu Tea	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Asian	78 Brookside Ave	open
Likquid Lounge	Bar		69 Brookside Ave	open
Lobster Pier	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	87 Brookside Ave	open
Long Lot Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		153 Johnson Rd	open
Magoya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	41 Brookside Ave	open
Main St Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	129 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	73 Brookside Ave (Rte 17m)	open
Meadow Blues Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8 Greycourt Ave	open
Mhf Chester Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		85 Brookside Ave	open
mingtown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	78 Brookside Ave	open
Nummies Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	32 Leone Ln	open
Oceane Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1661 Kings Hwy	open
Pollo A La Braza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Main St	open
Q Authentic Barbeque Restaurant & Bar	Bar		112 Main St	open
Royal Food Packaging	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		157 Greycourt Rd	open
Rushing Duck Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2 Greycourt Ave	open
Rustic Wheelhouse Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	39 Main St	open
SABOR A CASA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	123 MAIN St	open
Smokzilla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	157 Greycourt Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	78 Brookside Ave Ste 150	open
Sugar Loaf Taphouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1368 Kings Hwy	open
Sunhing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Japanese · Asian	69 Brookside Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	85 Brookside Dr.	open
Tacos Express Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	44 Main St	open
Tai-pan Pizza Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		69 Brookside Ave Ste 205	open
The Gluten Free Bread Basket	Bakery	Bakery	123 Main St	open
The New Chester Diner Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	65 Brookside Ave	open
The Plants Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian · Vegan	23 White Oak Dr Seligmann Studio	open
Tin Barn Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		62 Kings Hwy Bypass	open
Tina's Pizza Cafe and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	69 Brookside Ave #205	open
Touch Base	Bar		9 Winkler Pl	open
Triple Play Cafe at The Rock Sports Park	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Coffee	24 Old Black Meadow Rd	open
Valkyrie Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	23 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	78 Brookside Ave	open
Clarke S Ice Cream And Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2927 State Route 94	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	19	16	8	6	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	8	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	17	14	8	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	17	16	9	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	18	16	10	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	9	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	15	11	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	10	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	8	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	19	8	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	19	7	7	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	22	9	9	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	6	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	22	8	12	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	22	21	8	11	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	25	24	10	12	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	24	23	10	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	26	11	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	28	10	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	24	8	10	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	25	8	11	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	29	28	12	11	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	32	30	14	10	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10918. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10950	3.7 mi	77	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.