BMIE Market 10924

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,720 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,738 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,120 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,819 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,770 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±103 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$454,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,069 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10924
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-3.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+47.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 23–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10924. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.6	80	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.1	49	35%	+17.2
Market Momentum Score	39.1	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,720	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	110,938	87	40%	+34.8
Households (ACS)	4,738	74	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-3.5	22	35%	+7.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.4	36	25%	+9.1
Population (ACS)	13,720	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	110,938	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-3.5	22	30%	+6.5
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (64)

By cuisine

American 13 · Bakery 9 · Pizza 9 · Coffee 8 · Italian 8 · Sandwiches 6 · Mexican 5 · Latin American (other) 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Indian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Spanish / tapas 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Casual dining 10 · Bakery 9 · Quick service 8 · Bar 7 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amore's Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	182 W Main St	open
Angelita's Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	32 N Church St #1r	open
Bimbo Bakeries Usa	Bakery	Bakery	9 Police Dr	open
Boston Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7 Matthews St	open
Brew Goshen Brew	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2 Railroad Ave	open
Brickolini's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1 Legoland Blvd	open
Brick’s Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Bunz on the Run	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	NY-17M	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	33 Matthews St	open
Cafe Margot	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	170 W Main St	open
Carlo's Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	84 Clowes Ave	open
Catherine's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	153 W Main St	open
Club Ontaroga	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3316 Route 207	open
Country Courtesy Caterers	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	32 Old Chester Rd	open
Court House Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		132 Main St	open
Davey's Barista	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	146 N Church St	open
Delancey's	Casual dining · Bar		40 Park Pl	open
Diplomat Café & Bakery	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	87 Main St	open
Dragon House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	114 Clowes Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	400 Greenwich Ave	open
El Rancho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3 New St	open
Elsie's Luncheonette	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	128 W Main St	open
Franzel	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · German / Eastern European · European	47 W Main St	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	31 Matthews St	open
Gold Star Chimney Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	190 W Main St	open
Goshen Chinese Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	142 W Main St	open
Goshen Gourmet	Bakery	Bakery	134 W Main St	open
Goshen pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	244 W Main St	open
Goshen Plaza Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	118 Clowes Ave	open
Granny's Apple Fries	Café	Coffee	332-400 Harriman Dr	open
Hacienda Hacienda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) · Spanish / tapas · Mexican	1700 NY-17M	open
Hide Tide Eats Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8 John Dr	open
Howell's	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	18 W Main St	open
Ice Capps	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	134 W Main St	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	105 Clowes Avenue	open
Jonny's Smokes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1753 NY-17M	open
Kelley Jean's Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	145 N Church St	open
Kiki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	99 W Main St	open
La Casita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	West Main Street	open
La Polla Argentinian food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	190 W Main St	open
Limoncello at the Orange Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	159 Main St	open
New Street Lounge	Bar		14 New St	open
Not Just Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	129 W Main St	open
Orange County Bagel Orange County Bagel Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	151 Greenwich Ave	open
Pasta Della Nonna	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1753 Route 17M	open
Pharmacy Kitchen and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		62 W Main St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	75 Matthews St	open
Potenza Old World Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Quaker Creek Store	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	767 Pulaski Hwy	open
Real Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	190 W Main St	open
Redendo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	116 Clowes Ave	open
Saffron Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	playtogs plaza route 17m	open
Sip n Go Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	2001 RT-17M	open
Sorrento's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	15 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	108 Clowes Ave	open
Super Nacho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1 Matthews St	open
Sweet Tymes	Dessert		159 W Main St	open
Thank Goodness It's Vegan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	27 W Main St	open
The AROMA Indian kitchen+Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	92 Clowes Ave	open
The Country Convenience Store	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2514-2520 State Route 17M	open
The Garden of Mt. Adam & Mt. Eve	Food truck		736 Pulaski Hwy	open
Trailside Treats Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	28 St James Pl	open
Village Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	100 Greenwich Ave	open
What's the Scoop?	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	20 Matthews St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	19	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	24	20	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	30	23	11	9	3	5	NAICS1997
1999	25	21	11	8	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	26	21	12	6	3	5	NAICS1997
2001	30	24	14	7	3	5	NAICS1997
2002	27	20	13	5	2	5	NAICS1997
2003	28	20	13	5	2	4	NAICS2002
2004	27	18	11	5	2	4	NAICS2002
2005	30	22	12	6	4	4	NAICS2002
2006	32	24	11	8	5	4	NAICS2002
2007	34	26	13	8	5	2	NAICS2002
2008	33	27	12	10	5	2	NAICS2007
2009	33	27	13	10	3	2	NAICS2007
2010	35	29	12	12	4	2	NAICS2007
2011	37	30	14	12	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	36	31	16	10	4	2	NAICS2012
2013	34	29	14	11	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	35	29	14	11	3	3	NAICS2012
2015	34	29	12	12	4	3	NAICS2012
2016	36	28	13	10	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	36	29	11	13	4	3	NAICS2017
2018	35	28	11	12	4	3	NAICS2017
2019	35	27	10	13	4	3	NAICS2017
2020	35	26	9	13	4	3	NAICS2017
2021	38	26	9	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	39	26	12	8	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	42	28	13	8	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10924. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10921	3.4 mi	15	2023
10958	3.7 mi	3	2021

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.