BMIE Market 10921

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,231 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±367 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,517 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,135 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,545 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,290 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±140 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$387,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,982 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10921
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	33.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+275.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10921. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.8	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.3	40	35%	+14.1
Market Momentum Score	27.8	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,231	58	40%	+23.1
Median household income (ACS)	115,221	89	40%	+35.5
Households (ACS)	1,517	56	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	35.5	16	25%	+3.9
Population (ACS)	4,231	58	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	115,221	89	20%	+17.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	50%	+8.7
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · American 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barrel 28	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		28 N Main St	open
Big Ron's Barbeque	Catering	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	60 S Main St	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16 S Main St	open
Central Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	133 N Main St	open
Chumleys BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	56 N. Main Street	open
Co Physics Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Commercial Dr Ste 1	open
Copper Bottom An American Grill and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	162 N Main St	open
Cork Wine Bar	Bar		22 N Main St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	162 N Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	158 N. Main St	open
El Azteca Mexican Restaurant Azteca Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	117 S Main St	open
Florida Bakery & Deli	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · German / Eastern European	10 S Main St	open
Glenmere Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		55 Maple Ave	open
Japanese Fusion Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	162 N Main St Ste 2	open
Jayne Street Distilling Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		41 Jayne St	open
Logan's Well	Bar		28 N Main St	open
Mattingly's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	16 N Main St	open
Miller's Dairy Delite	Dessert · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	186 N Main St	open
Ming Hing Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	16 South Main Street, Florida, NY	open
Pizza Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	8 S Main St	open
Pizza Express Florida New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1 Meadow Rd	open
Rookie's Restaurant & Pizzeria & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	27 N Main St	open
Shepherd's Eye Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		9 Industrial Dr	open
Slattery's Florida Bar & Grill	Bar		14 N Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	26 N Main St	open
The Sweet Onion Brewhouse	Bar		28 N Main St	open
Zoe's Latin Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	56 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	6	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	9	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	7	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	17	16	8	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	7	4	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	16	7	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	5	6	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	5	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	21	20	5	12	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	3	10	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	17	6	7	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	5	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	17	5	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	17	5	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	3	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	4	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	15	4	7	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	4	6	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10921. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10924	3.4 mi	28	2023
10990	4.5 mi	57	2023
10958	4.5 mi	3	2021

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.