BMIE Market 10990

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±809 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,768 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,631 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,835 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$125,870 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,089 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,453 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$501,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,724 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	61.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	57 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10990
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+46.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+90.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+137.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	65 (range 58–71) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.5 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10990. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.7	86	40%	+34.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.1	68	35%	+23.8
Market Momentum Score	71.8	72	25%	+18.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,368	82	40%	+32.7
Median household income (ACS)	125,870	92	40%	+36.8
Households (ACS)	7,768	81	20%	+16.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.0	22	25%	+5.6
Population (ACS)	20,368	82	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	125,870	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.6	65	50%	+32.3
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	30%	+23.8
20-year restaurant growth	90	79	20%	+15.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (112)

By cuisine

American 19 · Coffee 19 · Dessert 12 · Italian 11 · Bakery 8 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Asian 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Mexican 5 · Chinese 4 · British / Irish pub food 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Mediterranean 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · European 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Vegan 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Bar 16 · Café 16 · Dessert 15 · Bakery 11 · Casual dining 11 · Coffee shop 10 · Winery / distillery / taproom 9 · Quick service 8 · Specialty food shop 6 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
100 Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	100 Main St	open
Agave y Maiz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	172 NY-94	open
Ana Restaurant/Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	22 Spring St	open
Apple Dave's Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		82 Four Corners Rd	open
Applewood Winery	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom		82 Four Corners Rd	open
Asian Delicacies Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	148 Rte 94 S	open
Bagel Time	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	153 NY-94	open
Baird's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		103 Main St	open
Bellvale Creamery Bellvale Farms Creamery	Quick service · Café	Coffee	385 State Route 94 N	open
Bellvale Farms Creamery Bellvale Farms Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1390 NY-17A	open
Benito's Pizzeria and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	32 Ronald Reagan Blvd	open
Black Dirt Distillery Black Dirt Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		114 Little York Rd	open
Blarney Station	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	British / Irish pub food	10 Railroad Ave	open
Bone Yard Cantina	Bar	Spanish / tapas · Mexican	17 Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	8 Oakland Ave	open
C & D's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	25 Elm St	open
Cactus Pete's Jerky & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Church St	open
Cafe e Dolci PM	Café · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee · Dessert	8 West St Apt 1	open
Cafe Samaya	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Indian	18 Main St	open
Caffe A La Mode	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Oakland Ave	open
Candy Apple Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	60 Main St #1a	open
CBC Beer Bar	Bar		93 Main St	open
Charlotte's Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea · British / Irish pub food	15 Oakland Ave	open
Clearview Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		35 Clearview Ln	open
Consciousfork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	16 Railroad Ave	open
Coquito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	31 Forester Ave	open
Corbett's Cookie Bar Kitchen	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Coffee · Dessert	12 Railroad Ave	open
Country Dream	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	258 Pine Island Turnpike	open
Crystal Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	12 Amity Rd	open
Demarest Hill Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Demarest Hill Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		81 Pine Island Tpke	open
Double S Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse · Cajun, Creole, Southern	49 Oakland Ave	open
Dream Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	72 South St	open
Drifter Ferments	Café	Coffee	2 Oakland Ave Ste 1a	open
Drowned Lands Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		251 State School Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	93 Main St #95	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	153 Route 94 S	open
Eat Sweet	Bakery	Bakery	28 Railroad Ave	open
Eddie's Roadhouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	18 Main St	open
Edenville General Store	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	240 Pine Island Turnpike	open
Eight X Sand	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	12-14 Railroad Ave	open
EL HABANERO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	172 NY-94	open
Epdr Associates Llc-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		56 Main St	open
Fannie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	28 Railroad Ave	open
Fence Road Farm Brewery LLC	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		13 Fence Rd	open
Ferreira-Carpenter Estates Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		62 W Ridge Rd	open
Fetch Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		48 Main St	open
Fizzy Lifting Soda Pop Candy Shop	Dessert		17 Main St	open
Fourteen Railroad	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Railroad Ave	open
Franico's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	25 Elm St	open
Frank's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	64 Main St	open
FríYo	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Vegan	26 Railroad Ave	open
G's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	32 Main St	open
Galloway Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	62 Galloway Rd	open
Garage Days Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Halligan's Public House	Bar	British / Irish pub food	22 West St	open
Harvest Moon Cafe	Café	Coffee	16 Main St	open
Henry's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Mexican	583 State Route 94 N	open
Hickory Hill Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	25 County Park Ln	open
High Point Warwick Inc Dba-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 Main St	open
Hunan Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9 Maple Ave	open
Jean-Claudes Patisserie	Bakery	Bakery	25 Elm St	open
John Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		31 Forester Ave	open
JonAngelo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	382 Kings Hwy	open
La Petite Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	Railroad Ave	open
La Piazza Wine & Martini Bar and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	24 Railroad Ave	open
Lai Shun	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	25 Elm St Ste 1	open
Larry's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	44 Galloway Rd	open
Leaf & Ladle	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Casual dining	Healthy / salads / bowls · American	13 Forester Ave	open
Long Spring Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	1521 # 1, 10 Oakland Ave	open
Long Spring Merchant Square	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	30 Ronald Reagan Blvd	open
Luca Trattoria and Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	South Shoprite Plaza, 153 NY-94	open
New Lai Shun Chinese Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Elm St Ste 1 # Sute	open
Noble Pies	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	12 Oakland Ave	open
Noble Pies	Bakery	Bakery	121 State Route 94 S	open
Old Stone House Restaurant Warwick NY	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	21 Hathorn Rd	open
Oma’s Community Farm	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	300 Bellvale Lakes Rd	open
Opa Greek Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	10 Oakland Ave	open
Pane Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Pennings Farm Cidery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4 Warwick Turnpike	open
Pioneer Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	49 Oakland Ave	open
Prime 36 Italian Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Italian · American	36 Oakland Ave	open
Red Fox Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	121 NY-94 Suite #1	open
Roam Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)		103 Main St	open
Rusty Goat Grill	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies	Lower Level, on The Carriage Path, 46 Main St	open
Saporito Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	382 Kings Hwy	open
Scratch Baking Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	50 Main St	open
Shannon's Eyes on the Pies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	252 Pine Island Turnpike	open
Silvio's Villa Ristorante & Martini Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	274 NY-94	open
Sonia's Restaurant	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	42 Ronald Reagan Blvd	open
South Street Saloon	Bar		15 South St	open
Sweet D's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	25 Main St	open
Taco Hombre	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	93 Main St	open
The Cracked Pot	Café	American · Coffee · Cajun, Creole, Southern	583 NY-94	open
The Dembeck Estate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
The Fed Of Warwick	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mediterranean	30 Main St	open
THE GRANGE	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1 Ryerson Rd	open
Tokyo Plum House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	65 Main St #196	open
Top’s Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	NY-17A	open
Town Real Estate Center Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Bank St	open
Trattoria Viviano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	100 Main St	open
Tuscan Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	5 1/2 South St	open
Vibe Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	319 NY-94	open
Warwick Chocolate Company	Dessert	Dessert	16 Railroad Ave	open
Warwick Food Truck Festival	Food truck		46 Bowen Rd	open
Warwick Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Oakland Ave	open
Warwick Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	93 Main St Ste 4	open
Warwick Valley Winery & Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		114 Little York Rd	open
Wolfies of Warwick	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	38 Main St	open
Yesterdays	Restaurant (service type not stated)		29 Main St Ste 1	open
You Are Beautiful People Inc Dba Beautiful People	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Church St Ste 2a	open
Chifood Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2 Oakland Ave Ste 1a	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	24	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	27	26	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	31	29	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	28	24	12	10	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	28	24	13	9	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	26	23	12	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	25	23	15	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	32	29	17	10	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	33	30	20	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	38	34	19	10	5	2	NAICS2002
2005	41	38	21	12	5	1	NAICS2002
2006	41	39	26	8	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	42	38	23	8	7	1	NAICS2002
2008	44	40	25	8	7	1	NAICS2007
2009	42	37	25	6	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	39	33	22	7	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	41	35	24	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	41	37	25	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	44	39	24	10	5	1	NAICS2012
2014	46	41	26	11	4	1	NAICS2012
2015	54	50	30	14	6	1	NAICS2012
2016	54	50	33	12	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	56	50	29	15	6	—	NAICS2017
2018	59	53	30	17	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	56	50	30	14	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	53	48	28	13	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	63	56	31	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	66	57	35	14	8	3	NAICS2022
2023	68	57	34	14	9	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10990. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10921	4.5 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.