BMIE Market 10925

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±358 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,539 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,393 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$80,321 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,695 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,442 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$360,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,191 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10925
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	26.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.32) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10925. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.32, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.2	60	40%	+24.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.4	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	58.1	58	25%	+14.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,313	58	40%	+23.2
Median household income (ACS)	80,321	63	40%	+25.0
Households (ACS)	1,875	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	35%	+29.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.5	18	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	4,313	58	20%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	80,321	63	20%	+12.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	30%	+25.6
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 5 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 10 · Dessert 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Brothers Pizzeria and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	92 Windermere Ave	open
All Seasons Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140 Windermere Ave	open
Audrey's Food Truck	Food truck · Catering	Caribbean	1155 NY-17A	open
Big Bear Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1155 NY-17A	open
Cabin 12	Bar		1177 NY-17A	open
Casa De La Lees	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	20 W Cove Rd	open
Cove Castle Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	13 Castle Ct	open
Crêpes & Creamery At Willow Point Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		622 Jersey Ave	open
Doc's Pizza & Steak	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · Pizza	657 Jersey Ave	open
Dock Side Food Truck Park	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1155 NY-17A	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	70 Teneyck Ave	open
Emerald Point Lakeside Restaurant and Pub	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	40 Sterling Rd	open
Fix Stix	Dessert		77 Edgemere Ave Unit N	open
Four Brother's Pizzeria & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	75 Windermere Ave	open
Friendly Beer and Soda Corporation	Brewery / taproom		156 Windermere Ave	open
Greenwood Lake Italian Ice & Crème	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	61 Windemere Ave	open
Greenwood Lake Partners Llc The Helm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		649 Jersey Ave	open
Greenwood Lake Roasters Craft Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	160 Windermere Ave	open
GWL Ice Cream Shack	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1146 NY-17A	open
Irish Whisper Public House	Bar		112 Windermere Ave	open
Jean-Claude's Patisserie	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	122 Windermere Ave	open
Karen's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	699 Jersey Ave	open
Last Whisky Bar	Bar		45 Woodlands Ter	open
Mangos Tortilla Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	104 Windermere Ave	open
Manna La Colina Italian Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	40 Jersey Ave	open
Mexicanzingo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	104 Windermere Ave	open
Murphy's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		85 Windermere Ave	open
Planet Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	126 Windermere Ave	open
Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	886 NY-17A	open
Sing Loong Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	102 Windermere Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Cvs #03098s1b, 123 Windermere Ave	open
Sunrise Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	40 Jersey Ave	open
Tacos Don Juan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	75 WINDERMERE Ave	open
The Breezy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	620 Jersey Ave	open
The Bridge Inn	Bar			open
The Grill Brewer - The Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	125 Windermere Ave	open
The Helm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	649 Jersey Ave	open
The Waterfall Cafe at Moeville	Café · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee		open
Trattoria Italiana Gwl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	75 Windermere Ave	open
Village Buzz Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	91 Windermere Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	15	13	8	3	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	14	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	12	9	5	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	2	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	13	7	5	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	8	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	13	9	6	3	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	14	10	6	4	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	17	12	8	4	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	8	6	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	15	12	7	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	7	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	15	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	18	14	9	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	5	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10925. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10979	1.6 mi	1	2005
07421	3.4 mi	9	2023
10987	3.5 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.