BMIE Market 10926
Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 3,416 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±627 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 1,385 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 3,203 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 1,305 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $94,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,500 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,061 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $336,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,821 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 17.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10926 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 15.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +60.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.64) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 92 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10926. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.64, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 63.5 | 64 | 40% | +25.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 65.8 | 66 | 35% | +23.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 91.8 | 92 | 25% | +23.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 3,416 | 54 | 40% | +21.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 94,279 | 77 | 40% | +30.8 |
| Households (ACS) | 1,385 | 55 | 20% | +11.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 35% | +32.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 23.4 | 29 | 25% | +7.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 3,416 | 54 | 20% | +10.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 94,279 | 77 | 20% | +15.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 92 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 60 | 92 | 50% | +46.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 30% | +27.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 166.7 | 90 | 20% | +18.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (28)
By cuisine
Coffee 6 · American 4 · Mexican 4 · Italian 3 · Dessert 2 · Greek 2 · Pizza 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Caribbean 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 5 · Quick service 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| An Artistic Taste | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean · American | 88 NY-17M | open |
| Angelo's Sicilian Trattoria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 4C N Main St | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 4 Locey Ln Unit 401 | open |
| Crossroads Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Coffee | 186 NY-17M #2 | open |
| Di il Siñore Ristauranti | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 4 N Main St | open |
| DiceBowl | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 95 Maher Ln | open |
| El Castillo Mexican Restaurant & Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 95 Maher Ln | open |
| Evergreen Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | Times Square | open |
| Harriman Square Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 1 N Main St | open |
| Kavos Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Mediterranean | 67 N Main St | open |
| Kulture Cafe | Café | Coffee | 2 N Main St | open |
| Lithari Greek Taverna | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek | 67 N Main St | open |
| Magnolia Coffee & Tea Shop | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 160 NY-17M | open |
| Marina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 76 Ramapo Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | 1 Locey Ln | open | |
| Rancho Nuevo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4 N Main St | open |
| Rrapi's of Arthur Avenue Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2 N Main St | open |
| Shah's Halal Food Shah's Halal Food | Quick service | 6 Locey Lane | open | |
| Sparaco And Youngblood Engineering-sba Small 7a Term | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 18 N Main St | open | |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop | Coffee | 5 Locey Lane | open |
| Suzy's Sips & Scoops | Dessert · Café | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee | 17 N Main St | open |
| Tacos Pollo Loco | Food truck | Mexican | 22 NY-RT 17M | open |
| The Cake Lady Desserts and Cafe | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 88 NY-17M | open |
| The Naughty Monkey Bar & Grill | Bar | 67 N Main St | open | |
| Transportation Services Of-sba Small 7a Term | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 14 State Route 17M | open | |
| F& M Sales Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 190 State Route 17m Ste D | closed | |
| Legends | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 67 N Main St | closed | |
| Mythos House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek | 67 N Main St | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 4 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 5 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 4 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 5 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 7 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 9 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 11 | 10 | 8 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 7 | 6 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 9 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |