BMIE Market 10917

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±603 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	586 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,968 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	709 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,944 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,560 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$577,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±108,141 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	35 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10917
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	127.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+94.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+191.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	36 (range 32–40) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10917. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.9	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.1	51	35%	+17.9
Market Momentum Score	76.5	76	25%	+19.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,923	44	40%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	121,944	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	586	39	20%	+7.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	182.0	2	25%	+0.5
Population (ACS)	1,923	44	20%	+8.8
Median household income (ACS)	121,944	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	94.4	80	20%	+15.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (59)

By cuisine

American 12 · Dessert 11 · Bakery 8 · Coffee 8 · Burgers 5 · Italian 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Japanese 4 · Chinese 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Pizza 3 · Sushi 3 · Caribbean 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Dessert 13 · Bakery 8 · Quick service 8 · Café 6 · Casual dining 6 · Bar 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Buffet 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Better Place Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	200 Route 32	open
Aji Asian cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	287 NY-32	open
Amalfi Pizzeria & Restaurant Amalfi Pizzeria Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	200 Route 32	open
Applebee's Grill + Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	448 Evergreen Ct	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Quick service	Bakery	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Bagel World Bagel World	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	273 Route 32	open
Black Dirt Bourbon Barn Black Dirt Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		K108, Red Apple Ct	open
Bright Star Diner	Casual dining	American	220 Route 32	open
Burberrys	Quick service		27 Bond St	open
CasaMia eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	20 Smith Clove Rd	open
Charlie's Pub	Bar		200 Route 32	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Christie's Sweet Creations	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	32 Smith Clove Rd	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Cosimo's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	100 NY-32	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	10 Centre Dr	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop	Coffee	124 Rte 32	open
Everything Kosher	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Healthy / salads / bowls	Located in Levi’s, parking lot, 101 Niagara	open
Forest Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Seafood	30 Valley Ave	open
Gong Cha Woodbury Common Outlet Gong Cha	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	714 Race Track Lane	open
Grand Mango Caribbean Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Caribbean · American	4 Smith Clove Rd	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	291 Rte 32	open
Häagen-Dazs Haagen-Dazs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Hudson's Ice Cream Café & Kosher Pizza	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Pizza · Halal / kosher	250 NY-32	open
Iron Chef of Central Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	365 NY-32	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	498 Red Apple Ct Unit FC-8	open
Jorge's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Casual dining	American · Sandwiches	228 NY-32	open
Just Salad Just Salad	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian	498 Red Apple Ct	open
KINTON RAMEN WOODBURY COMMON KINTON RAMEN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	197 Niagara	open
Kpw Woodbury Premium Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		498 Red Apple Ct Unit Fc4	open
Kung Pao Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	498 Red Apple Ct	open
La Cocina De Javier	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	20 Smith Clove Rd	open
Laderach_na Läderach NA	Dessert	Dessert	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Lady M Cake Boutique - Woodbury NY	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	498 Red Apple Ct Unit K-105	open
Lindt Lindt	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	498 Red Apple Ct	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	498 Red Apple Ct (Woodbury Common)	open
Mechi's Deli & Juice Bar	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies · Caribbean	264 NY-32	open
Melt Shop Melt Shop	Other	Sandwiches · Burgers · American	498 Red Apple Ct Ste #FC9	open
Mexas Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		518 Food Ct	open
Nathan's Famous	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	500 Food Ct # RT	open
Neuhaus Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	498 Red Apple Ct, Kiosk 115	open
Pagoda Asian Grill by P.F. Chang's P.F. Chang's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	195 Niagara	open
Palaia Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11 Abrams Rd	open
Parm Woodbury Common Major Food Group	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	448 Evergreen Ct	open
Pinkberry Pinkberry Türkiye	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	499 Red Apple Ct	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	214 Red Apple Ct	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		20 - Centre Dr	open
Shake Shack Shake Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	199 Niagara Ln	open
South Philly Steaks & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	524 Food Ct	open
Starbucks, Woodbury Common Premium Outlets Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	400 Dune Road	open
TGI Fridays	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5 Centre Dr	open
The Coffee Members	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	498 Red Apple Ct	open
The Dugout	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Burgers	159 NY-32	open
The Woodbury Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	220 NY-32	open
Tony + Benny's South Philly	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian · American	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Umi Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	498 Red Apple Ct	open
UNO Pizzeria & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20 Centre Drive Route 32 - Woodbury Center	open
Waffle De Lys	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Breakfast · Bakery	498 Red Apple Ct	open
Wetzel's Pretzels	Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	498 Red Apple Ct, Space Ste K114	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	20	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	26	22	9	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	27	23	9	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	24	23	10	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	25	24	9	10	5	—	NAICS2002
2008	26	24	9	10	5	1	NAICS2007
2009	26	24	8	10	6	1	NAICS2007
2010	28	25	8	13	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	23	22	8	11	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	24	24	8	12	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	28	28	10	12	6	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	25	9	9	7	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	30	10	13	7	1	NAICS2012
2016	26	25	7	12	6	1	NAICS2012
2017	28	27	8	11	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	28	9	11	8	—	NAICS2017
2019	30	28	10	10	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	33	31	11	10	10	—	NAICS2017
2021	32	31	11	9	11	—	NAICS2017
2022	32	31	11	10	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	35	14	10	11	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10917. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10910	3.2 mi	1	2016
10930	4.2 mi	6	2023
10926	4.7 mi	8	2023
10950	4.8 mi	77	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.