BMIE Market 10974

Rockland County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,382 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,152 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,141 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$117,596 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,884 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,789 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±632 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$433,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,472 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10974
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10974. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.1	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.4	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	29.9	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,382	54	40%	+21.6
Median household income (ACS)	117,596	89	40%	+35.8
Households (ACS)	1,243	53	20%	+10.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.5	18	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	3,382	54	20%	+10.8
Median household income (ACS)	117,596	89	20%	+17.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · American 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Casual dining 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&J's Lunch Wagon	Food truck · Quick service	American		open
Applegreen - Sloatsburg Travel Plaza	Quick service			open
Characters	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		94 Orange Tpke	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	59 Orange Tpke	open
Dunkin' Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	Nys Thruway Mile 33 N	open
Jessie's Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	207 Orange Turnpike	open
JTS Grab & Go	Brewery / taproom		55 Turnpike Rd	open
LavAzza Coffee Lavazza	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Burgers	99 Waldron Terrace	open
Njt Assoc. Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		203 Orange Tpke	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	99 Waldron Terrace	open
Ramapo Shake Shack	Quick service		Milepost 33 Southbound	open
Rhodes North Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	British / Irish pub food	40 Orange Tpke	open
Sbarro Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Pizza · Coffee · Bakery	New York State Thruway - Mile Marker 33 North	open
Seven Lakes Station	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Brewery / taproom		80 Orange Tumpike	open
Shake Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers		open
Spring Street Deli North	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	59 Orange Tpke	open
Stone Meadow Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	23 Seven Lakes Dr	open
Sunnysides Bar And Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		245 Orange Tpke	open
Sushiville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	67 Orange Tpke	open
Taco Tpke	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	55 Orange Turnpike	open
The Bar Scene in Hudson Valley & Northern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining			open
The Last Stop at Jessie’s	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		207 Orange Tpke	open
The Pizza Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	57 Orange Turnpike	open
The Views at Mount Fuji	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	296 Orange Tpke	open
The Village Blend	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	86 Orange Turnpike	open
Two Friends Deli Restaurant & Bar	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Mexican	23 Seven Lakes Dr	open
Mountain Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)		88 Orange Tpke	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	5	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10974. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10931	2.5 mi	1	2016
10901	3.2 mi	49	2023
10987	3.3 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.