BMIE Market 11783
Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 21,127 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,084 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±410 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 21,288 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,400 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $176,993 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,944 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 41.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,612 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±612 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $654,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,513 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 40 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11783 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -4.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -7.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +48.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 35 (range 32–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11783. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 88.1 | 88 | 40% | +35.2 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 53.1 | 53 | 35% | +18.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 29.4 | 29 | 25% | +7.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 21,127 | 82 | 40% | +32.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 176,993 | 98 | 40% | +39.3 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,084 | 79 | 20% | +15.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -7.0 | 20 | 35% | +7.0 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 18.9 | 40 | 25% | +10.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 21,127 | 82 | 20% | +16.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 176,993 | 98 | 20% | +19.6 |
Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -4.8 | 23 | 50% | +11.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -7.0 | 20 | 30% | +6.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 42.9 | 60 | 20% | +12.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (71)
By cuisine
Italian 14 · Pizza 13 · American 12 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 6 · Seafood 5 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 3 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Quick service 15 · Dessert 9 · Bar 8 · Bakery 7 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Café 3 · Other 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Stars Pizza & Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3593 Bayview St | open |
| American Waffle House Waffle House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 3927 Merrick Rd | open |
| Bagel Kings of New York | Bakery · Delivery-focused | Bakery | 3939 Merrick Rd | open |
| Bayview Tavern | Bar · Casual dining | American | 3595 Bayview St | open |
| Brooklyn Square Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Italian | 3620 Merrick Rd | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3960 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Butera’s Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3930 Sunrise Hwy | open | |
| Capri Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 3434 Merrick Rd | open |
| Cara Mia | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Casual dining | Italian · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American | 3935 Merrick Rd | open |
| catfish max | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 3681 Naomi St | open |
| Charred Brick Oven | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 3915 Merrick Rd | open |
| Cheng's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 3618 Merrick Rd | open |
| Chicken Holiday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 1246 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service | 2024 Paddock Rd | open | |
| Chriso Food Services Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3360 Merrick Rd | open | |
| Crabby Amy's, | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | Seafood | 2880 Ocean Ave | open |
| Dang BBQ | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Chicken / wings | 3864 Merrick Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 1041 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert | 4007 Merrick Rd | open |
| East Bay Diner Seaford | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3360 Merrick Rd | open |
| El Coyote Loco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 3545 Merrick Rd | open |
| Fehn's Cake & Cookie Shop | Bakery | Bakery | 3649 Merrick Rd | open |
| Forks Pasta | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused | Italian | 3935 Merrick Rd | open |
| Formaggio Pizzeria and Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1240 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Frida's Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 3545 Merrick Rd | open |
| Gino's of Seaford | Quick service | Pizza · Italian | 3535 Merrick Rd | open |
| Great Asian Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Chinese | 3549 Merrick Rd | open |
| Gusto Divino Trattoria Gusto! | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 3930 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Harbor Ale House | Bar | 3595 Bayview St | open | |
| Ice Cream Treats And Sweets | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1047 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Il Bacetto | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 3982 Jerusalem Ave | open |
| J and J Best Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 3984 Jerusalem Ave | open |
| J&G's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 1083 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Karl Ehmer of Seaford | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 3608 Merrick Rd | open |
| liwinedad | Winery / distillery / taproom | 2600 Kevin Rd | open | |
| Mad Topper Yogurt | Other · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1200 Hicksville Rd | open |
| Mario's Pizzeria of Seaford Mario's Pizzeria of Oyster Bay | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3842 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Mary's Pizza and Adam's Rib Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3882 Merrick Rd | open |
| Ming Sing Chinese Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1069 Hicksville Rd #1327 | open |
| Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill | Quick service | 4030 Merrick Rd | open | |
| Ndl Restaurant Corp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3915 Merrick Rd | open | |
| Pantano's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3535 Merrick Rd | open |
| Pastrami Express | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café | Sandwiches · Coffee | 3882 Merrick Rd | open |
| Phatsos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 3601 Merrick Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4030 Merrick Rd., Kings Seaford | open |
| Pizza Italia NYC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3593 Bayview St | open |
| Pomodorino Ristorante Italiano | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3914 Merrick Rd | open |
| Puglias Italian Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Steakhouse · American | 3943 Merrick Rd | open |
| Ralphs Italian Ice | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 2250 Washington Ave C | open |
| Rosario's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2140 Jackson Ave | open |
| Runyon's | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Hot dogs · American | 3928 Merrick Rd | open |
| Seaford Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 567 Rutherford Dr | open | |
| Seaford Delicatessen Inc | Other | Sandwiches | 3925 Merrick Rd | open |
| Seaford Harbor Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Breakfast | 3623 Bayview St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Café · Coffee shop · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 3870 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Stillwaters | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 2851 Ocean Ave | open |
| SUBWAY | Other | Sandwiches | 3785 Merrick Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 3850 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Sunset Grill | Bar | 4068 Sunrise Hwy | open | |
| Sweet Spot Cafe Long Island | Dessert · Café | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee | 3787 Merrick Rd | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 3950 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Tarallo's Pizzeria & Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1700 Washington Ave, 1700 Washington Ave | open |
| That's Amore Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3601 Merrick Rd | open |
| The Energy Bar Of Long Island | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 3916 Merrick Rd | open |
| The Leaky Lifeboat Inn | Bar | 3603 Merrick Rd | open | |
| The Sanctuary in Seaford | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1473 Sidney Ct | open | |
| The White Whale Restaurant | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 3580 Bayview St | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 4030 Merrick Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3882 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Za Late Night Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3601 Merrick Rd | open |
| Wicked Taco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3925 Merrick Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 32 | 27 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 29 | 24 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 27 | 23 | — | — | — | 4 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 33 | 30 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 31 | 27 | 9 | 15 | 3 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 27 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 33 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 35 | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 35 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 37 | 33 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 42 | 37 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 40 | 36 | 14 | 18 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 36 | 33 | 14 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 40 | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 39 | 35 | 17 | 15 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 44 | 41 | 18 | 20 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 48 | 44 | 18 | 21 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 47 | 43 | 19 | 20 | 4 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 48 | 42 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 44 | 40 | 17 | 20 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 48 | 43 | 18 | 22 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 51 | 43 | 14 | 24 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 49 | 42 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 47 | 41 | 16 | 20 | 5 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 43 | 38 | 15 | 18 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 44 | 38 | 12 | 19 | 7 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 43 | 37 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 3 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 47 | 40 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 3 | NAICS2022 |