BMIE Market 11933

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±799 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,889 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,844 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,577 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,195 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,954 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$444,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,981 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11933
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-28.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11933. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.8	61	40%	+24.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.0	68	35%	+23.8
Market Momentum Score	26.5	26	25%	+6.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,693	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	74,195	54	40%	+21.5
Households (ACS)	2,889	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.5	82	25%	+20.6
Population (ACS)	6,693	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	74,195	54	20%	+10.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	-37.5	8	20%	+1.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Bakery 11 · American 6 · Dessert 4 · Coffee 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Brazilian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bakery 11 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Catering 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baiting Hollow Farm Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2114 Sound Ave	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	4123 Middle Country Rd	open
Bean and Bagel Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast	4426 RT-25	open
Briermere Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)		79 Sound Ave	open
Briermere Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	79 Sound Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3705 Middle Country Rd	open
Charnette Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4426 Middle Country Rd	open
Clarkson Ave Crumb Cake	Dessert	Dessert	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Cooperage Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2218 Sound Ave	open
East End Country Kitchens Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		121 Edwards Ave	open
Eggcellent Quiche	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Breakfast	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Farrm Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		156 Youngs Ave	open
For Goodness Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Fox Hill Country Club Caterers & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		100 Fox Hill Dr	open
Georgios Restaurant & Caterer	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	100 Fox Hill Dr	open
Golden Jalapenos Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	4486 Middle Country Rd	open
Got A Guy Eatery	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	4490 Middle Country Rd	open
Grapes & Greens	Winery / distillery / taproom		2711 Sound Ave	open
J and R'S Steakhouse J & R's Steakhouse Calverton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	4362 Middle Country Rd	open
Johnny Rockets	Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Burgers · Sandwiches	2549 Splish Splash Dr	open
Lake View Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5835 Middle Country Rd	open
Long Island Spirits	Winery / distillery / taproom		2182 Sound Ave	open
Lucky Lou's Gourmet Rice Pudding	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Mr. vins bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
My Big Fat Cookie	Bakery	Bakery	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Pão de Queijo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Latin American (other)	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Pepperidge Farm Outlet	Bakery	Bakery	# 503	open
Pipini Breads	Bakery	Bakery · Vegetarian	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Riverhead Ciderhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2711 Sound Ave	open
Sugar Sweet Treats	Bakery	Bakery	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
The Biscotti Company	Bakery	Bakery	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
The Juice Box Long Island	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Juice / smoothies	4603 Middle Country Rd	open
The Long Island Pie Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Food truck		2114 Sound Ave	open
The Village Crossroads Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3725 Middle Country Rd	open
Uncle Nick's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4603 Middle Country Rd	open
Virgola Wine Bar	Bar · Café	Coffee	5 Village Grn	open
Wine Country Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	3674 Middle Country Rd	open
YoYo Chicken Yoyo chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4490 Middle Country Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	3	—	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11933. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11792	3.3 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.