BMIE Market 11792

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±877 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,116 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±442 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,523 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,240 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$146,174 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,718 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$597,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±69,430 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11792
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+26.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+46.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+216.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 19–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.57) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11792. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.57, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.4	79	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.5	66	35%	+22.9
Market Momentum Score	42.4	42	25%	+10.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,904	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	146,174	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	3,116	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	26.7	69	35%	+24.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.3	34	25%	+8.5
Population (ACS)	8,904	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	146,174	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.5	19	50%	+9.5
10-year restaurant growth	26.7	69	30%	+20.6
20-year restaurant growth	46.2	61	20%	+12.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 9 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 6 · Italian 6 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 7 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Pinch of Sprinkles Bake Shoppe & Confectionery Studio Inc Sprinkles Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5768 NY-25A Ste A	open
Amarelle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2028 N Country Rd	open
Blackwell's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	141 Fairway Dr	open
Blue Water Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2 Sound Rd	open
Brekky	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	2 Sound Rd	open
Brezza Pizza Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5768 NY-25A, Ste K	open
Carousel Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	5768 Route 25a Ste A	open
Chef Franco’s Sports Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		C/O Route 25A & Wading River Manor Road	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6261 NY-25A	open
Constant Cravings Sweet Shoppe, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6346 Route 25A	open
Desmond's Gastro Pub	Casual dining · Bar		5720 NY-25A	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6346 Route 25A	open
Greek Island Diner	Casual dining	American	6324 Route 25A	open
Hudson Market	Café	Coffee	6 Sound Rd	open
J.a.w.s Restaurant Grp Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		131 Creek Rd	open
Juice to Table	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5 Frost Ln	open
La Bistro Pizzaria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6265 Route 25A	open
La Plage	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European · American	131 Creek Rd	open
Lolo's Bakehouse	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Long Pond Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6333 New York 25A	open
Mesquite Tex-Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	2034 N Country Rd	open
Michael Anthony's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2925 N Wading River Rd	open
My Creperie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2b Sound Road	open
Myra's Ice Cream Cafe	Café	Coffee	5720 Route 25A	open
North Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2028 N Country Rd	open
P M Restaurant Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1856 Wading River Manor Rd	open
Pazzo Ristorante and Wood Fired Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6278 Route 25A	open
Phil's	Bar · Casual dining	American	1856 Wading River Manor Rd	open
Pride Enjoy	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Vegetarian · Dessert	6302 NY-25A Ste 2 Building C	open
Pulcinella on the Green	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	141 Fairway Dr	open
Pure North Fork Craft Kitchen & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		141 Fairway Dr	open
Ralph's Italian Ice and Ice Cream Ralph's Italian Ices- Lanoka Harbor, NJ	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6346 NY-25A	open
Ruggero's Family Style Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5768 NY-25A Ste y	open
Senor Taco Mexican Grill Senor Taco Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6274 NY-25A	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6333 NY-25A	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	6302 Route 25A	open
Sweendom	Bar · Casual dining		84 East Ln	open
Sweet Melissa's Candy Shoppe	Dessert		5768 NY-25A b	open
The Eastern Squeeze Juice & Sandwich Shoppe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5768 NY-25A Ste C	open
The Sweet Escape Macarons & Candy Shop	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	5768 Route 25A	open
Truffles Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6271 NY-25A	open
Tweets Ice Cream Café	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	5768 NY-25A Bldg L	open
Wading River Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5324 Route 25a	open
Wading River Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6324 NY-25A	open
Watermark of Wading River	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2925 N Wading River Rd	open
Wildcat Bagel Deli	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	6243 NY-25A	open
Wines by Nature	Winery / distillery / taproom		5768 NY-25A suite I	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	13	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	18	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	20	10	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	20	7	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	19	6	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	20	8	7	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	19	8	6	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11792. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11933	3.3 mi	5	2023
11786	3.3 mi	7	2023
11961	4.7 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.