BMIE Market 11944

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,037 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±522 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,299 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,812 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,298 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,493 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,084 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$885,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,365 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11944
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	65.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+137.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+153.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	42 (range 38–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.72) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11944. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.72, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.9	64	40%	+25.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.1	50	35%	+17.5
Market Momentum Score	68.2	68	25%	+17.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,037	61	40%	+24.2
Median household income (ACS)	85,298	68	40%	+27.3
Households (ACS)	2,072	61	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.6	65	35%	+22.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	75.4	6	25%	+1.5
Population (ACS)	5,037	61	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	85,298	68	20%	+13.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.6	62	50%	+31.0
10-year restaurant growth	22.6	65	30%	+19.6
20-year restaurant growth	137.5	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (86)

By cuisine

American 15 · Seafood 11 · Coffee 9 · Bakery 6 · Italian 6 · Mexican 6 · Pizza 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Breakfast 3 · Japanese 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · European 2 · French 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · BBQ 1 · Brazilian 1 · Burgers 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 55 · Bar 20 · Casual dining 11 · Café 8 · Bakery 6 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1943 Pizza Bar	Bar	Italian · Pizza	308 Main St	open
Agave	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex		open
Aldo's Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	103-105 Front St	open
Alpina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		45 Front St	open
Andy's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	34 Front St	open
Anker	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		47 Front St	open
Bay & Main Restaurant & Lounge	Bar		300 Main St Unit A	open
Billys by the Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	2530 Manhanset Ave	open
Black Llama	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		300 Main St Unit C	open
Blue Canoe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	104 3rd St	open
Blue Harbor Cafe	Bar		110 Front St	open
Brick Oven La Capricciosa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	135 3rd St	open
Brix & Rye	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	308A Main St	open
Bruce & Son	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	208 Main St	open
CASA AMIGOS Restaurante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	110 Front St	open
Claudio's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	111 Main St	open
Claudio's Wines & Liquors	Winery / distillery / taproom		219 Main St	open
Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	300 Main St	open
Crazy Beans Crazy Beans Restaurant	Coffee shop · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	2 Front St	open
Cuvée Catering & Events	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	326 Front St	open
D'latte Cafe & Bakery	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	218 Main St	open
Deep Water Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		47 Front St	open
Demarchelier Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	French · European	471 Main St	open
El Paseo	Bar	Seafood · American	111 Main St	open
Ellen's on Front	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	38 Front St	open
Encanto Crepes and Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Breakfast · Coffee	140C Main St	open
First and South Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	100 South St	open
Flavors Dessert Cafe	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	216 Front St	open
Fro-Yopia Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	110 Front St	open
Front Street Station	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	212 Front St	open
Goldberg's Famous Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	131 3rd St	open
Green Hill Kitchen & Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	48 Front St	open
Greenport Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	142 Main St	open
Greenport Fire	Bar		125 Main St	open
Greenport Harbor Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		234 Carpenter St	open
Greenport Tea Company	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	119 Main St Unit A	open
Island Silk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Front St	open
Kontiki	Restaurant (service type not stated)		314 Main St	open
Kontokosta Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		825 Route Ste 25	open
Kontokosta Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		825 North Rd	open
La Regia Deli And Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other) · Brazilian	131 3rd St	open
Little Loaves Gallery	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	117 Main St	open
Low Tide Beach Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood · American	58775 County Rd 48	open
Lucharitos Lucharitos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Bakery · Mexican · Latin American (other)	119 Main St	open
Matchbook Distilling Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		230 Corwin St	open
Meson Olé!	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	135 3rd St	open
New China	Restaurant (service type not stated)		206 Front St	open
Noah's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	136 Front St	open
North Fork Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
North Fork Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom		714 Main St	open
Old Bait Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	37 Row Off, Front St	open
Olive Branch Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	120 Front St	open
Pearl Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	409 Main St	open
Pip's Cafe & Provisions	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	218 Main St	open
Pipes Cove Oysters	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Silvermere Rd	open
Pizzeria Baccano	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	111 Main St	open
PORT Waterfront Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		104 3rd St	open
Porters Hospitality Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34 Front St	open
Porto Bello	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	1410 Manhasset Ave	open
Ralph's Famous Italian Ices	Dessert	Dessert · Italian · Ice cream / frozen desserts	37 Front St	open
Rinconcito Hispano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	7 Sterlington Commons	open
Rolling In Dough Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	308 Main St	open
Rose Deli & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	74365 Main Rd	open
Sailors Haven Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		212 Front St	open
Sakura Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	204 Front St	open
Saylor Beach House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	111 Main St	open
Skippers II	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4545 NY-25	open
SpecialTea House	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	455 Main St	open
Sterlington Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	3 Sterlington Commons	open
Stirling Sake	Bar	Japanese · Sushi	477 Main St	open
Sun Greens Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		477 Main St	open
Sushi Sasuke Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	218 Main St	open
that little italian place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	main street	open
The Blue Duck Bakery Cafe Blue Duck Bakery Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	130 Front St	open
The Farmhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	45 Front St	open
The Frisky Oyster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	27 Front St	open
The North Fork Oyster Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	300 Main St	open
The Shipyard	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		102 Main St	open
The Sweet Spot Greenport	Restaurant (service type not stated)		300 Main St	open
Tikal I	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	110 Front St	open
Vine Wine and Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	100 South St	open
Whiskey Wind Tavern	Bar		30 Front St	open
ZErdem	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	314 Main St	open
Chowder Pot Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		104 3rd St	closed
Fro-yo-pia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Front St	closed
Vino N Vittles	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Front St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	17	14	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	19	18	13	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	17	15	11	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	15	11	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	18	16	11	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	20	16	11	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	23	19	13	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	23	21	16	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	28	24	20	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	23	21	17	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	25	23	18	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	26	24	17	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	31	28	21	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	34	31	21	7	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	35	28	20	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	35	31	22	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	32	27	20	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	34	28	22	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	36	30	24	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	40	34	28	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	43	36	28	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	43	35	26	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	45	36	28	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	41	35	26	5	4	3	NAICS2017
2022	41	35	25	5	5	3	NAICS2022
2023	43	38	28	5	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11944. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11939	3.8 mi	3	2023
11965	3.9 mi	4	2023
11971	3.9 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.