BMIE Market 11971

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±781 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,818 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,051 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,507 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,335 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$843,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±51,371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11971
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	32.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11971. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.6	76	40%	+30.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.4	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	28.0	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,361	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	129,507	93	40%	+37.2
Households (ACS)	2,437	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	31.4	19	25%	+4.7
Population (ACS)	6,361	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	129,507	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.8	23	50%	+11.5
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Seafood 4 · Breakfast 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Winery / distillery / taproom 12 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Quick service 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Lure Chowder House & Oysteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	62300 Main Rd	open
Blue Duck Bakery Cafe Blue Duck Bakery Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	56275 NY-25	open
Cai Hong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	46520 County Road 48	open
Corey Creek Tap Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		45470 Main Rd	open
Country Corner Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	55765 Route 25	open
Croteaux Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1450 S Harbor Rd	open
Duck Walk Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		44535 Main Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	53345 Route 25 Feather Hill Village	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		53345 Route 25	open
East End Bagel Cafe	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · Breakfast	46455 County Rd 48	open
East Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		46455 County Road 48	open
Erik's Breakfast & Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	43715 County Road 48	open
Founders Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	55500 Route 25	open
Gluten Free Groove Online Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	75 Cedar Dr	open
grace and grit	Café	Coffee	55795 Route 25	open
Grateful Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	55700 RT-25	open
Jeni's Main Street Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	54195 Route 25	open
Jiggles and Giggles	Bar		Boisseau Ave	open
La Cascada	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	46455 County Rd 48	open
Latin Fuzion Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	53345 Main Rd	open
Little Fish	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	50 N Sea Dr	open
Long Island Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom		44535 RT-25	open
Maroni Southold	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Mattebella Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		46005 NY-25	open
Michaelangelo Of Southold, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		53345 Route 25 Bldg 53	open
Michelangelo Southold	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	53345 Route 25	open
Mudd's Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		39005 Middle Rd	open
North Fork Roasting Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	55795 Route 25	open
North Fork Table & Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		57225 Route 25	open
North Fork Table Lunch Truck	Food truck		57225 Route 25	open
North Fork Taps and Corks	Bar		53345 Main Rd	open
North Road Deli & Caterers	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	46520 County Road 48	open
Old Field Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		59600 Route 25	open
One Woman Wines and Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5195 Old North Rd	open
Osprey's Dominion Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		44075 RT-25	open
Pagano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	53345 Route 25	open
Pagano's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	46455 County Road 48	open
Pepi's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	400 Old Main Rd	open
Pizza Uno Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	46455 Middle Rd	open
Puerto Verde	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	62375 Route 25	open
Rotisserie Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	46520 County Rd 48	open
Russell Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		55500 Route 25	open
Sarge's Outpost	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	565 Jericho Turnpike	open
Senor Taco Senor Taco Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	44780 Middle Rd	open
Shared Table Farmhouse	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		425 Jacobs Ln	open
Six Three One	Casual dining	American	62375 Route 25	open
Sophie's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	730 Main Bayview Rd	open
Southold General	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Bakery · Coffee	54180 Main Rd	open
Southold LI NY	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Southold Social	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	56125 Main Rd	open
Sparkling Pointe	Winery / distillery / taproom		39750 County Rd 48	open
The First National Bank of Long Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	53345 Main Road, Unit 11-1	open
The North Fork Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	41150 County Rd 48	open
The Seafood Barge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	62980 Route 25	open
The Station at POE by Little Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	300 Old Main Rd	open
Wednesday's Table	Other	Sandwiches	53345 Route 25	open
Weenie Panini	Quick service · Food truck	Hot dogs	44075 Main Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	20	18	11	5	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	17	10	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	18	17	12	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	16	11	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	19	13	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	8	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	9	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	17	12	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	13	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	10	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	22	20	12	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	21	19	11	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	21	20	12	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	23	22	12	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	24	16	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	25	25	18	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	25	25	17	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	30	27	18	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	28	22	13	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	21	12	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	29	22	12	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	30	23	13	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	21	12	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	23	13	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	20	12	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11971. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11958	2.6 mi	1	1997
11944	3.9 mi	38	2023
11935	4.3 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.