BMIE Market 11935

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,863 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±425 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,304 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,069 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$143,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,031 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	56.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,120 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,044 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$915,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±91,811 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11935
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.74) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11935. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.74, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.0	69	40%	+27.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.1	72	35%	+25.2
Market Momentum Score	55.6	56	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,863	51	40%	+20.5
Median household income (ACS)	143,750	95	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	1,134	52	20%	+10.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.0	35	25%	+8.7
Population (ACS)	2,863	51	20%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	143,750	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 2 · Italian 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · French 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 16 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 6 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bedell Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		36225 Main Rd	open
Braun’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	30840 Main Rd	open
Castello Di Borghese	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		17150 County Road 48	open
Coffee Pot Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		31855 Main Rd	open
Cutchogue Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	27850 Main Rd	open
darious date cookie	Bakery	Bakery	8595 Cox Ln	open
Farmer Bar Cutchogue Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4805 Depot Ln	open
Gristina Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		RT-25	open
K B's Bread	Bakery	Bakery	1 Wagon Wheel Ln	open
Lieb Cellars Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		13050 Oregon Rd	open
Macari Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		24385 Main Rd	open
McCall Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		22600 Main Rd	open
New Vine Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom		2284 Bridge Ln	open
North Cliff Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		22355 Middle Rd	open
North Fork Potato Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	8595 Cox Ln	open
Peconic Bay Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		31320 Main Rd	open
Pellegrini Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		23005 Main Rd	open
Pugliese Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		34515 Main Rd	open
Red Rooster Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · American	4805 Depot Ln	open
Roma Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	31455 Main Rd	open
Sannino Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		15975 Middle Rd	open
Touch of Venice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	28350 Main Rd	open
Vineyard 48	Winery / distillery / taproom		18910 County Road 48	open
Viviano Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Waters Crest Winery Private Wine Club	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		28735 Main Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	3	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	4	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11935. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11958	1.7 mi	1	1997
11956	2.2 mi	3	2022
11952	3.4 mi	21	2023
11971	4.3 mi	20	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.