BMIE Market 11952

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±852 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,017 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,637 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,685 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,139 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,622 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±864 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$764,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85,364 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11952
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	36.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+110.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 20–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11952. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.6	73	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.4	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	39.5	39	25%	+9.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,040	61	40%	+24.2
Median household income (ACS)	120,139	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	2,017	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	41.7	13	25%	+3.2
Population (ACS)	5,040	61	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	120,139	90	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (61)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 5 · Seafood 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Cuban 1 · Filipino 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Bar 15 · Winery / distillery / taproom 13 · Casual dining 7 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ali Katz Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	55 County Rd 48	open
All County Medical Supply	Bar · Casual dining	American		open
aMano Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	13550 Main Rd	open
Ammirati's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	135 Love Ln	open
Avelino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	150 Bergen Ave	open
Balo’s Foods	Food truck			open
Basso	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Main St	open
Blue Moon Fish HQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1735 Breakwater Rd	open
Chenza’s Twisted Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10560 Main Rd	open
CJ's American Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10095 Main Rd	open
Cooper's Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2200 Breakwater Rd	open
East End Events Catering Company, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10095 Main Rd Unit 8	open
Eastern Front Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		13100 Main Rd	open
Goldberg's Famous Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	10095 Main Rd	open
Goodfood.	Café	Vegetarian · Coffee	535 Pike St	open
Gramercy Vineyards	Bar		10020 Old Sound Ave	open
Harbes Vineyard Harbes Family Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		715 Sound Ave	open
Iron Skillet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	730 Love Lane	open
Jan's Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10095 Main Rd #16	open
Lieb Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		35 Cox Neck Rd	open
Long Island Wine Tours	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		30 Artist Dr	open
Love Lane Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Breakfast	240 Love Ln	open
Love Lane Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	125 Love Ln	open
Lucha Cubana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cuban		open
Lucharitos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10095 Main Rd Unit 15	open
Lucia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	13000 Main Rd	open
Macari Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		150 Bergen Ave	open
Macchiato Macchiato café El Salvador	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	13175 Main Rd	open
Magic Fountain	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9825 Main Rd	open
Mattitaco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10560 Main Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	8850 Main Rd Ny 25	open
Meat's Meat BBQ Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	9095 Sound Ave	open
Michelangelo Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	10095 Main Rd	open
Noah's On The Road Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10560 Main Rd	open
North Fork Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	8700 Main Rd	open
North Fork Doughnut Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13175 Main Rd	open
North Fork Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13550 Main Rd	open
North Fork Wine Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Old Mill Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	5775 W Mill Rd	open
Old Sound Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		9650 Sound Ave	open
Pizza Rita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Route 48	open
Pookaberry Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Filipino · Coffee	140 Pike St	open
Premium Wine Group	Winery / distillery / taproom		35 Cox Neck Rd	open
Primavera pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13500 Main Rd	open
Roanoke Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		165 Love Ln	open
Rose Hill Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2000 Oregon Rd	open
Salt & Smoke Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1 Old Main Rd	open
Scarola Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		4850 Sound Ave	open
Sherwood House Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2600 Oregon Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	10095 Main Rd	open
Suhru Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		35 Cox Neck Rd	open
The Branch Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		9095 Sound Ave	open
The Broken Down Valis	Bar		180 Pike St	open
The Clam Bar @ Alize Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	10560 Main Rd	open
The Crazy Fork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10560 Main Road	open
Touch of Venice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2255 Wickham Ave	open
Tuckers Taproom & Smokehouse	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	9095 Old Sound Ave	open
Vineyard Barn Boutique	Winery / distillery / taproom		3985 Sound Ave	open
Wendy's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	55 Middle Rd	open
Windamere	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	2255 Wickham Ave	open
Four Doors Down	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10560 Main Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	18	6	8	4	1	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	5	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	25	21	12	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	21	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	24	21	13	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	25	23	13	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	24	22	13	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	26	23	12	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	24	13	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	24	12	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	14	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	27	24	13	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	22	11	7	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	21	11	6	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11952. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11948	2.8 mi	1	2016
11935	3.4 mi	6	2023
11956	4.0 mi	3	2022
11970	4.3 mi	1	2016
11947	4.4 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.