BMIE Market 12019

Saratoga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,006 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,758 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±491 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,740 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,944 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,420 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,940 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,242 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$400,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,113 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12019
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-27.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	86 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12019. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.7	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.9	86	35%	+30.1
Market Momentum Score	86.3	86	25%	+21.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,555	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	112,420	88	40%	+35.0
Households (ACS)	6,758	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.1	91	25%	+22.8
Population (ACS)	15,555	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	112,420	88	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Pizza 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ballston Lake Restaurant Management Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 Main St	open
Ballston Lakeview Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	175 Lake Rd	open
Brooke's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	17 Longkill Rd	open
Carney's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	17 Main St	open
Charlton Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	745 Charlton Rd	open
Ciao Bella Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	146 Raylinsky Rd	open
Classic Crust Brick and Mortar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	989 Main St	open
Dinos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	802 Saratoga Road	open
Dragon Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	146 Raylinsky Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Sandwiches · Dessert	9 Round Lake Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	809 RT-50	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	809B State Route 50	open
Galway Rock Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		998 Saratoga Rd	open
Leah's Cakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	146 Raylinsky Rd	open
Mulligan's Restaurant & Pub	Bar		6 Round Lake Rd	open
Palazzo San Paolo Rabat	Bar		67, Main street	open
Quite Ambition	Coffee shop	Coffee	456 Acorn St	open
Rocco's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	989 Main St	open
Snowfox Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	43 Round Lake Rd	open
Villago Pizzeria & Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	175 Lake Rd	open
Zen OM	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2 South Holw	open
Finnigan's On The Lake	Bar	British / Irish pub food	175 Lake Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	5	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	5	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	6	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	11	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12019. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12027	1.6 mi	8	2023
12020	4.7 mi	68	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.