BMIE Market 12027

Saratoga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±251 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,882 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,527 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,313 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,071 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,526 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$344,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12027
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-20.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12027. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.6	72	40%	+28.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.6	54	35%	+18.8
Market Momentum Score	34.7	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,693	59	40%	+23.7
Median household income (ACS)	120,000	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	1,734	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.1	46	25%	+11.4
Population (ACS)	4,693	59	20%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	120,000	90	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · American 3 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burnt Hills Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	800 Saratoga Rd	open
Cupola Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	227 Kingsley Rd	open
Fo Castle Farm Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		166 Kingsley Rd	open
Gotobed Lounge and Casino	Bar			open
J R's Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	658 Saratoga Rd	open
Lunch Thyme At FO' CASTLE FARMS	Café · Fast casual	Coffee · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	166 Kingsley Rd	open
Mama's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts	119 Lake Hill Rd	open
Mr. Wok Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	772 NY-50	open
Odyssey Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	772 Saratoga Rd	open
Pig 'N Whistle At The Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	654 Saratoga Rd	open
Pizza Works Pizza Works Burnt Hills	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	720 Saratoga Rd	open
Sam's Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chinese · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	822 State Route 50	open
Smooth Joe's	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	Fruitwood Dr	open
Soft Landing Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	227 Kingsley Rd	open
Stella Pasta Bar & Bakery Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		166 Kingsley Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	772 Saratoga Rd	open
The Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	710 Saratoga Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	1	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	7	1	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12027. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12019	1.6 mi	8	2023
12008	4.7 mi	1	1997
12302	4.8 mi	52	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.