BMIE Market 12117

Fulton County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,871 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,308 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±142 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,256 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,098 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,427 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$208,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12117
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	29 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12117. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.5	48	40%	+19.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	28.8	29	35%	+10.1
Market Momentum Score	45.8	46	25%	+11.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,871	51	40%	+20.5
Median household income (ACS)	66,000	40	40%	+16.2
Households (ACS)	1,308	54	20%	+10.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.4	28	25%	+6.9
Population (ACS)	2,871	51	20%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	66,000	40	20%	+8.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	-30	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ana's Place	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	7 N School St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	2470 State Highway 30	open
Higher Ground Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		2513 State Highway 30	open
KBC Beer	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4 N Main St	open
Lanzi's Chef's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	Rt 30 North	open
Mama Mia’s Of Mayfield	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2469 State Highway 30	open
Mayfield Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		8 School St	open
Mendettas sunset cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Pizza · Juice / smoothies	353 Paradise Point Rd Ext	open
Mr Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7 N School St	open
Nanny & Pops Small Town Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	20 School St	open
Northampton Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1205 NY-30	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2470 NY-30	open
The L.A.B. Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2532 NY-30	open
The Tree	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	799 NY-30	open
Tin Roof Homestead	Bakery	Bakery	1001 State Highway 30	open
What Sharon Likes	Café	Coffee	318 Houseman St	open
Zippy's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2513 NY-30	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	6	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	7	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	13	7	6	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	11	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	6	5	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	15	11	7	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	5	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	5	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12117. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12078	4.6 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.