BMIE Market 12188

Saratoga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,880 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,980 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,947 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,878 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$281,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,146 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12188
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	9 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12188. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.8	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.1	56	35%	+19.6
Market Momentum Score	8.5	9	25%	+2.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,988	72	40%	+28.9
Median household income (ACS)	92,279	75	40%	+30.1
Households (ACS)	4,880	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.5	90	25%	+22.5
Population (ACS)	10,988	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	92,279	75	20%	+15.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 9 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-40	7	50%	+3.5
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Bar 8 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ames Pub	Bar		23 Suncrest Dr	open
Corcoran's Towpath Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		33 Saratoga Ave	open
Don & Paul's Coffee Shoppe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	68 Broad St	open
I Love Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	90 Broad St	open
Joanne's Bar	Bar		2 Weaver Ave	open
La Bella Pizza and Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	72 Broad St	open
Le Quai Bistrot Francais	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	49 Broad St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	42 Saratoga Ave	open
McGreivey's	Bar	British / Irish pub food	91 Broad St	open
Mr. Subb	Other	Sandwiches	90 Broad St	open
Norrine's Restaurant	Bar	Italian · American	405 Hudson River Rd	open
Pizza Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	282 Middletown Rd	open
Simply Irresistible Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	53 Broad St	open
Sun Rise Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	64 Broad St	open
Sweet Bee'z	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4 Lower Newtown Rd	open
The Angry Penguin	Bar		41 Broad Street	open
The Dessert Tray	Bakery	Bakery	103 Broad St	open
Thompson's Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Waterford Locks	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		69 Washington Ave	open
Costanzo's Riverside Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		405 Hudson River Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	6	1	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	2	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	3	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	3	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12188. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12047	3.0 mi	26	2023
12182	3.7 mi	17	2023
12121	4.6 mi	1	2001

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.