BMIE Market 12428

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,995 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±400 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,842 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,602 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,433 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$63,145 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,003 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,251 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$238,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	55.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12428
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+26.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+118.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+71.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 26–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.82) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12428. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.82, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.7	54	40%	+21.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.6	57	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	85.7	86	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,995	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	63,145	36	40%	+14.2
Households (ACS)	2,842	66	20%	+13.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.3	17	25%	+4.1
Population (ACS)	6,995	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	63,145	36	20%	+7.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	26.3	82	50%	+40.8
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	118.2	86	20%	+17.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
99 Motel Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		70 N Main St	open
Allied Wine Corp	Winery / distillery / taproom		70 Berme Rd	open
Arianna's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2 Market St	open
Aroma Thyme Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	165 Canal St	open
Big Apple News & Grub	Casual dining	American	127 Canal St	open
Blue Devil Dairy Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		138 S Main St	open
Cattlemans. Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		150 Canal St	open
China House China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	102 Shoprite Blvd	open
City Girl Cakery	Bakery	Bakery	163 Canal St	open
Cohen's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · American	89 Center St	open
Delimovie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	168 Canal St	open
Dominick's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	104 Center St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2 1/2 N Main St	open
Ellenville Spice Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	104 Center St	open
Gaby's Cafe Gaby's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	141 Canal St	open
Il Paradiso Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	110 Shoprite Blvd	open
J & H Pinkz Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Edwards Pl	open
Ldr Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Hermance St	open
M and C Jamaican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	28 N Main St	open
Marbella Tapas Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	151 Canal St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	49 N Main St	open
Mom Rocks Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 Shoprite Blvd	open
Morning Sunshine	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	3 - 5 Clinton Ave	open
My Family Market Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	85 Center St	open
Nerdateria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	72 Center St	open
Panaderia Centro Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		89 Center St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	19 N Main St	open
Pub Poker USA	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		38 Church St	open
Richards Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Nevele Rd	open
Sideways	Bar		9 Liberty St	open
Smoke'n Mo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	8 Market St	open
Sook House Sushi Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	72 Center St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8112 US-209	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	41 N Main Street	open
The Publik House	Bar		130 Canal St	open
The Shaken Express	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	159 Canal St	open
Tony And Nick's Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	162 Canal St	open
Twin Ravens Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	168 Canal St	open
Carly’s Mountain Grille	Casual dining	American	150 Canal St	closed
Ldr Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Hermance St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	14	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	17	12	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	15	11	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	16	10	3	4	3	4	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	4	4	3	3	NAICS1997
2000	14	9	3	4	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	13	9	3	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	14	11	6	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	7	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	10	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	20	13	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	19	12	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	19	12	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	18	12	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	13	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	23	14	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	23	22	12	7	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	24	13	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12428. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12435	2.5 mi	1	2016
12483	4.1 mi	1	2004
12763	4.5 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.