BMIE Market 12763

Sullivan County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±138 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	942 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$55,741 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,386 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	56.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$262,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±98,372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12763
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2007, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2007, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2022, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1997–2023 (10 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.88) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	28 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	27 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12763. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1997–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.88, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	27.9	28	40%	+11.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	27.0	27	35%	+9.5
Market Momentum Score	50.7	51	25%	+12.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	890	30	40%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	55,741	23	40%	+9.1
Households (ACS)	444	34	20%	+6.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	33.7	17	25%	+4.2
Population (ACS)	890	30	20%	+6.0
Median household income (ACS)	55,741	23	20%	+4.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (3)

By cuisine

American 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Bar 2 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
High Voltage Catskills	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	47 Main St	open
The Dale	Bar · Casual dining		4 Old Post Hill Rd	open
The lucky dip	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	58 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2007	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12763. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12769	2.6 mi	—
12435	2.7 mi	1	2016
12483	2.9 mi	1	2004
12789	4.4 mi	3	2023
12428	4.5 mi	24	2023
12738	4.6 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.