BMIE Market 12485

Greene County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,021 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±297 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	297 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	865 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	910 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,165 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,613 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	28.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$950 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±611 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$316,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85,448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12485
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	104.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+55.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	80 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12485. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	35.6	36	40%	+14.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.7	47	35%	+16.4
Market Momentum Score	80.4	80	25%	+20.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,021	32	40%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	67,165	43	40%	+17.0
Households (ACS)	297	28	20%	+5.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	35%	+31.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	137.1	3	25%	+0.7
Population (ACS)	1,021	32	20%	+6.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,165	43	20%	+8.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	75	89	30%	+26.6
20-year restaurant growth	27.3	50	20%	+10.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Greek 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Glory Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6033 Main Street	open
Bear and Fox Provisions	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5932 Main St	open
Brave The Flames	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	6080 Main St	open
Catskillette	Restaurant (service type not stated)		55 Allen Rd	open
Chateau Belleview	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Deja Brew	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5980 Main St	open
Fortune Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6062 Main St	open
Jessie's Harvest House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5819 Main St	open
Lucky Catskills Tannersville	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Coffee	5932 Main St	open
Maggie's Krooked Cafe & Juice Bar	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	6000 Main St	open
Mama's Boy Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	6067 Main St	open
Pancho Villa's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	6037 Main St	open
Shandaken Bake	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	6036 Main St	open
Ski Greek Kitchen	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	6002 Main St	open
Space Brewpub	Bar		5999 Main St	open
Spinning Room	Bar		5975 Main St	open
Tabla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	6033 Main St	open
Tanners Boathouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	27 Lake Rd	open
The Notch	Bar	Asian	Colonial Country Club, 55 Allen Ln	open
The Pantry On Main	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	6022 Main St	open
Village Market Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	6234 Main St	open
Hudson-Chatham Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		6036 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	9	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	13	8	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	15	9	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	16	11	9	1	1	4	NAICS1997
1999	14	10	9	1	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	14	11	10	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	13	10	9	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	8	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	9	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	9	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12485. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12424	3.7 mi	1	1998
12436	4.3 mi	1	2016
12427	4.4 mi	1	2016
12442	4.4 mi	4	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.