BMIE Market 12518

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,114 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,485 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,870 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,494 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,208 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,819 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±115 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$432,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67,234 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12518
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+333.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12518. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.0	71	40%	+28.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.1	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	65.6	66	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,114	64	40%	+25.5
Median household income (ACS)	101,208	82	40%	+32.7
Households (ACS)	2,485	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	35%	+21.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.3	34	25%	+8.6
Population (ACS)	6,114	64	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	101,208	82	20%	+16.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 4 · Asian 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Vietnamese 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Avocado Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2576 US Highway 9W	open
Azul Agave Family Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2576 US-9W N	open
Baranyai’s Backyard Bar & BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	104 Harold Ave	open
Cielito Lindo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	255 Main St	open
Cornwall Coffee Co. & Mercantile	Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	310 Main St	open
Cornwall Sweets	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	297 Main St	open
Coyote Ugly Saloon	Bar		2640 US Highway 9W	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	45 Quaker Ave	open
Fiddlestix Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee	319 Main St	open
Fresh	Other	Sandwiches	225 Main Street	open
Ginny's Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		2576 US-9W	open
Grandma Phoebe's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	190 Angola Rd	open
Hudson Valley Wine Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
K&W Peking House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	19 Quaker Ave	open
Kanda House Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	304 Main St	open
Leo's Italian Restaurant and Pizzeria Leo's Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	23 Quaker Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		104 Pelham Dr	open
Pho Rush Cornwall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · American · Asian	331 Main St	open
Prima Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	252 Main St	open
Rocky Bagel	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	277 Main St	open
Shamrock Tavern	Bar		247 Main St	open
Storm King Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18 Ridge Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	55 Quaker Ave Suite 106	open
The Farmhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		277 Main St	open
Twins Eating House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	30 Quaker Ave	open
Wasabi Sesame	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese · Chinese	55 Quaker Ave Ste 101	closed
Woody’s All Natural	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	30 Quaker Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	3	4	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	9	3	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	3	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	3	3	4	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	3	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	3	1	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	7	3	1	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	8	2	3	3	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	7	2	3	2	5	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	3	4	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	6	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	10	5	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	9	4	3	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	14	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12518. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10953	1.9 mi	1	2001
12520	2.6 mi	6	2023
12553	3.4 mi	57	2023
12577	3.8 mi	3	2022
10996	4.0 mi	1	2016
10930	4.4 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.