BMIE Market 12553

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,384 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±844 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,829 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±450 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,438 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,650 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,757 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,652 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,625 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±110 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$362,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	57 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12553
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+90.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	56 (range 51–61) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12553. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.5	82	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.9	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	42.9	43	25%	+10.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,384	87	40%	+34.8
Median household income (ACS)	92,757	76	40%	+30.3
Households (ACS)	10,829	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	35%	+17.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.8	35	25%	+8.8
Population (ACS)	27,384	87	20%	+17.4
Median household income (ACS)	92,757	76	20%	+15.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.4	24	50%	+12.0
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	90	79	20%	+15.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (126)

By cuisine

American 15 · Italian 13 · Pizza 13 · Sandwiches 13 · Dessert 12 · Bakery 11 · Mexican 10 · Coffee 8 · Asian 7 · Chinese 7 · Latin American (other) 7 · Caribbean 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Burgers 4 · Spanish / tapas 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Japanese 3 · Sushi 3 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · German / Eastern European 2 · Greek 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 75 · Quick service 18 · Bakery 15 · Bar 14 · Dessert 13 · Casual dining 12 · Specialty food shop 7 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Other 4 · Fast casual 3 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ABC Pizza and Restaurant ABC PIZZA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Greek	198 Quassaick Ave	open
Abmg Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		573 Union Ave	open
Antonio's Cupcake Factory	Dessert	Dessert	113 Temple Hill Rd,	open
Antonio's Cupcake Factory	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	145 Windsor Hwy	open
Antonio’s Bakery and Macarons	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	113 Temple Hill Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service		330 Windsor Hwy	open
Avacar Motel Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		158 Windsor Hwy	open
Baker's Dozen	Bakery	Bakery	179 Temple Hill Rd	open
Blend Smoothie and Salad Bar	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	325 Windsor Hwy Ste 400	open
Blimpie	Other	Sandwiches	173 Windsor Hwy	open
Blue32 Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		325 Windsor Hwy	open
Brothers Barbecue Brothers Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2402 State Route 32	open
Brothers Of The Leaf Inc.	Bar		334 Avenue of Americas	open
Bubbakoo's Burritos Bubbakoo's Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	113 Temple Hill Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	364 Windsor Hwy	open
BurgerIM	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	113 Temple Hill Rd	open
BZ Royal Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	357 Old Forge Hill Rd	open
Cafe Richiesto & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Italian · Coffee · Pizza	1795 NY-32 Ste 100	open
Cafe Spice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	677 Little Britain Rd	open
Capri Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	359 Windsor Hwy	open
Carmella's Cucina LLC	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2894 US-9W	open
Chapala Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	335 Windsor Hwy	open
Chinatown AA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	374 Windsor Hwy	open
Chopstick Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	377 Windsor Hwy	open
Cinema Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	215 Quassaick Ave	open
Citrus Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Thai · Asian	1004 NY-94	open
Clearwater's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	318 Blooming Grove Tpke	open
Coach Diner	Casual dining	American	351 Windsor Hwy	open
Coneheads Ice Cream Stand	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1049 Little Britain Rd	open
Cosimo's Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1089 Little Britain Rd	open
Cosmo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	300 Union Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	401 Windsor Highway	open
Dowe Sweet Studio	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	393 Mt Airy Rd	open
Dragon City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1003 Little Britain Rd	open
Duck Town Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	246 Walsh Ave	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		173 Windsor Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2915 Route 9W	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1053 Little Britain Rd	open
El Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	325 Windsor Hwy	open
El Jalapeno Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	374 Windsor Hwy	open
El Paso Los Contreras Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	54 Quassaick Ave	open
El Rinconcito Latin Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Caribbean	266 Quassaick Ave	open
Farmers Deli N Grill	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	904 Little Britain Rd	open
Favata Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	304 Windsor Hwy	open
Fish & Chikzzz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1012 Little Britain Rd	open
Foodie Lounge	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	145 Windsor Hwy	open
Galaxy Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1188 1st St	open
George's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	287 Windsor Hwy #250	open
Great Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	115 Temple Hill Rd	open
Guac and beans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	355 Windsor Hwy	open
Gus's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	12-20 U.S. 9W	open
Gus's Restaurant & Tavern Gus's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	German / Eastern European · American	10 Quassaick Ave	open
Happy Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	176 Windsor Hwy	open
Heart Beet Kitchen	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2902 US Highway 9W	open
Hoagie Barmichaels	Casual dining · Bar		1101 River Rd	open
Hot Bagel Hot Bagels & Deli - Carefree &I17	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	367 Windsor Hwy	open
Hot December Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		145 Windsor Hwy Ste 102	open
Hudson Valley Cigars	Bar		475 Temple Hill Rd	open
Ikaros Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Greek	909 Union Ave	open
Irish Eyes Pub	Bar	American	2956 US-9W Nys	open
Ivana's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	145 Windsor Hwy	open
Kennedy fried Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	357 Old Forge Hill Rd #200	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	68 Old Temple hill Rd	open
LA CASA DE LA EMPANADA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	815 BLOOMING GROVE TURNP	open
La Casa Vicina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	1015 Little Britain Rd	open
La Isla Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	436 Blooming Grove Tpke	open
Lagomberry Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	112 Laurel Dr	open
Leo's Hotdogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	169 Broadway	open
Long John Silver's KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chicken / wings	334 Windsor Hwy	open
Mama Theresa's Pizzeria & Italian Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	374 Windsor Hwy	open
Mamma Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	318 Blooming Grove Turnpike	open
Marcelino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1020 State Route 94	open
Maria's and Mix Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	215 Quassaick Ave Ste 101 A	open
Matson's Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	538 Temple Hill Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2639 Route 32	open
Midway's Villa Roma	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · Italian · American	264 Quassaick Ave	open
Mina's Spanish Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other) · Caribbean	355 Windsor Hwy	open
Miracle Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	372 Windsor Hwy	open
Mision Mexico Pizzeria & Restaurante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Pizza	246 Walsh Ave	open
More Than Just Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	176 New Windsor Highway	open
Mr Boba Kitchen	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Tea / bubble tea · Dessert · Asian	355 Windsor Hwy	open
Mr. Cannoli	Dessert	Dessert	355 Windsor Hwy	open
My Place	Bar		911 Little Britain Rd	open
Never Forget Dan, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		318 Blooming Grove Tpke	open
New Windsor Deli And Pizza	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	179 Temple Hill Rd	open
New Windsor Fitness Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		565 Union Ave	open
New Windsor Fitness Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		317 Windsor Hwy	open
Not Just Salads	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	215 Quassaick Ave	open
Oliv Epicurean Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Halal / kosher	1357 2nd St	open
Orange Hill Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1004 State Route 94	open
Osaka	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	377 Windsor Hwy	open
Pacha’s Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	357 Old Forge Hill Rd #100	open
Panda Restaurant Panda Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	266 Quassaick Ave	open
Paul Smythe's Twisted Fried Chicken & Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	145 Windsor Hwy Ste 100	open
Pizza Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	357 Old Forge Hill Rd #600	open
Pizza Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	176 Windsor Hwy	open
Planet Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	325 Windsor Hwy	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	330 Windsor Hwy	open
Primo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	573 Union Ave	open
QQ Asian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	367 NY-32	open
Quiznos	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	372 Windsor Hwy	open
Quiznos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1130 1st St	open
Rose & Reid Bread Co.	Bakery	Bakery	6 Elizabeth Ln	open
Sazón Boricua	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Caribbean	815 Blooming Grove Tpke	open
Sazon Boricua	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	145 Windsor Hwy Ste 100	open
Schlesinger's Steak House	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	475 Temple Hill Rd	open
Soulful Melissa	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Vegetarian · Dessert	12553 Us Hwy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	113 Temple Hill Rd 100	open
Steak & Stein	Restaurant (service type not stated)		935 Union Ave	open
Storm King	Quick service	Burgers		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	335 Windsor Hwy Suite 200	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	200 Windsor Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	271 Breunig Rd Bldg 271	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	376 Windsor Highway	open
Talavera Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1008 Little Britain Rd	open
Taqueria MX	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	815 Blooming Grove Turnpike	open
Taste of Trini	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	357 Old Forge Hill Rd	open
The E Club, Globe And Anchor	Bar		900 Raz Ave	open
The Old Castaways	Casual dining · Bar		405 Shore Rd	open
The Ruckus	Restaurant (service type not stated)		145 Windsor Hwy	open
Toppings	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	287 Windsor Hwy	open
Waterfront Management, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2975 US Route 9W	open
Whistle Punk Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2899 US-9W	open
Wine O'Clock	Bar		436 Blooming Grove Turnpike	open
Yummee Cupcakes Cafe	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	54 Quassaick Ave	open
Age Of Grace Gourmet Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11 Riley Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	38	35	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	39	35	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	31	29	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	34	33	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	36	29	10	17	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	34	26	11	13	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	33	24	10	12	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	38	28	13	13	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	37	27	13	11	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	39	30	13	14	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	39	31	14	14	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	41	35	16	14	5	1	NAICS2002
2006	41	34	16	15	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	45	38	19	16	3	2	NAICS2002
2008	46	39	19	17	3	2	NAICS2007
2009	45	37	15	18	4	2	NAICS2007
2010	55	49	21	23	5	1	NAICS2007
2011	55	49	23	21	5	1	NAICS2007
2012	55	48	21	23	4	2	NAICS2012
2013	61	54	19	30	5	2	NAICS2012
2014	62	53	21	25	7	3	NAICS2012
2015	66	58	23	28	7	2	NAICS2012
2016	64	57	23	28	6	2	NAICS2012
2017	65	59	26	26	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	64	59	27	26	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	63	56	26	25	5	3	NAICS2017
2020	60	53	23	24	6	4	NAICS2017
2021	65	57	24	25	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	61	53	24	22	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	63	57	25	24	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12553. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12518	3.4 mi	13	2023
12577	3.6 mi	3	2022
10953	3.8 mi	1	2001
12520	4.5 mi	6	2023
12575	4.8 mi	1	2014

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.