BMIE Market 12525

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,749 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±780 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,097 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,311 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,516 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,268 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±547 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$446,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12525
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12525. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.1	65	40%	+26.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.9	48	35%	+16.8
Market Momentum Score	58.3	58	25%	+14.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,749	51	40%	+20.2
Median household income (ACS)	110,268	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	1,097	51	20%	+10.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.8	33	25%	+8.2
Population (ACS)	2,749	51	20%	+10.1
Median household income (ACS)	110,268	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Benton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	299 Bruynswick Rd	open
Bruynswick Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1308 Bruynswick Rd	open
Bubbe’s Deli & Grocery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3124 Route 44 55	open
Cafe Mio	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	2356 Route 44 55	open
Char 1788	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20 Gristmill Ln	open
Doc Schwarz Wine Jelly	Winery / distillery / taproom		658 RT-208	open
Foti Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2808 Route 44 55	open
Gardiner Bakehouse	Bakery	Bakery	297 Bruynswick Rd	open
Gardiner Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		699 NY-208	open
Lombardi's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	2808 Benton Cors	open
Mountain Brauhaus	Casual dining · Bar	German / Eastern European	3123 US-44	open
Pasquale's Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	135 Main St	open
Pitanga North	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		128 Main St	open
Subway Restaurants	Other	Sandwiches	604 State Route 208	open
Sunflower Art Studios	Restaurant (service type not stated)		120 Main St	open
Taco Truck	Food truck	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	20 Grist Mill Ln	open
The Disgruntled Chef	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	125 Main St	open
The Doom Saloon	Bar		575 S Mountain Rd	open
Tuthillhouse At The Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20 Gristmill Ln	open
Tuthilltown Spirits Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		14 Grist Mill Ln	open
Village Market and Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	125 Main St	open
Whitecliff Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		331 Mckinstry Rd	open
Mountain Harbor Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3124 Route 44 55	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12525. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12589	4.7 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.