BMIE Market 12589

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,646 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,581 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,228 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,192 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,815 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,006 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,246 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±384 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$378,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,922 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	59.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12589
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12589. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.0	76	35%	+26.6
Market Momentum Score	40.8	41	25%	+10.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,646	80	40%	+32.1
Median household income (ACS)	120,815	91	40%	+36.2
Households (ACS)	4,835	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	18,646	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	120,815	91	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	-9.1	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 6 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1 Luv Cakes NYC	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	170 Quaker St	open
Auntie Anne's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Plattekill mile post 65 N NYS thruway	open
Big W's Dogs hot dog stand	Quick service	Hot dogs · Sandwiches		open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	Modena Travel Plaza	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		Modena Travel Plaza	open
Cherry Top	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	949 Rte 32	open
Cherry Top Dairy Bar Cherry On Top	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	949 State Route 32	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	65 North NY State Thruway	open
Dos Amigos II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	33 Wallkill Ave	open
Elsie's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1475 NY 208	open
Guacamole Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	34 Wallkill Ave	open
Hudson Valley Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	34 Wallkill Ave	open
Jay Dee's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	47 Wallkill Ave	open
Kacey's Cafe To Go	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	1431 NY-208	open
la Bella Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1530 State Route 32	open
Magnanini Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar	Italian	172 Strawridge Rd	open
Nu-Cavu	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		857 Plains Rd	open
Parkview House Restaurant & Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		23 Main St	open
Pasquale's Pizzeria and Restaurant at Wallkill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26 Wallkill Ave	open
Ram Rod North	Bar · Brewery / taproom		15 Glenwood Dr	open
Salibakery	Dessert	Dessert	3 Lindsell Way	open
San Marino's Restaurant and Pizzeria	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Pizza · Burgers	3109 Rte 208	open
The Bruynswyck Inn II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2162 Bruynswick Rd	open
The Oyster and Clam Bar at the Bruynswick Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	2162 Bruynswick Rd	open
The Traveling Toque	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		211 Third St	open
The Twisted Ankle	Bar	British / Irish pub food	36 Wallkill Ave	open
Tosco's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1431 NY-208	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	11	6	3	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	15	11	7	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	12	8	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	15	11	7	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12589. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12548	3.8 mi	3	2023
12586	4.1 mi	17	2023
12525	4.7 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.