BMIE Market 12586

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±764 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,428 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,540 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,740 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,194 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,654 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$348,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,509 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12586
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+142.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+70.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12586. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.5	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.7	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	44.0	44	25%	+11.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,971	74	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	87,194	70	40%	+28.2
Households (ACS)	4,428	73	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.1	60	25%	+15.0
Population (ACS)	12,971	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	87,194	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.6	22	50%	+11.1
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	142.9	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Bakery 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Dessert 5 · Asian 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Chinese 3 · Italian 3 · American 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bakery 7 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 5 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angry Orchard Cider House	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2241 Albany Post Rd	open
Blazing Bagels Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	83 N Montgomery St	open
Blu Mango Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	81 E Main St	open
Calculated Confections	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	81 E Main St	open
Daxxon Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	78 Oak St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	123 E Main St	open
El Azteca Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	23 Orange Ave	open
Felicia's Little Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1427 NY-52	open
Franco's Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	74 Oak St	open
Frostee Freeze	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	123 E Main St	open
Gattuso's Deli News	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	113 Orange Ave	open
Giuseppe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1 Main St	open
Green Jade Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3 Orange Ave	open
Guido's Pizza Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	35 E Main St	open
JASBA Freeze Dried Candy	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	81B W Main St	open
Jerry's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 Main St	open
Ker Market A friendly place for coffee tea sandwiches desserts or grab & go	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea · Sandwiches	65 Main St	open
Lillo's Pizzareria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	67 Main St	open
Lizzy’s Good Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)		81 W Main St	open
Ming Jie's House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	47 Main St	open
Mom and Pop’s Food Truck	Food truck		1430 State Route 52	open
On Set Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	86 W Main St	open
Orange County Bagel Orange County Bagel Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	76 Thruway Shop Cnt Plaza	open
Pbf Cafe Walden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42A Orchard St	open
S & T Diner Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		23 Orange Ave	open
Southside Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	113 Orange Ave	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	75 E Main St	open
Sweeney's Irish Pub	Bar		33 Orange Ave	open
Sweeter Than Sweet Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	81 W Main St	open
The Barnside	Café	Coffee	Orchard St.	open
Thruway Building Products Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		78 Oak St	open
Tres Leches Deli and Bakery	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	113 Orange Ave	open
Union House Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		22-24 Hepper St	open
Whipped Cupcakes Patisserie	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5 Orange Ave	open
Zona Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	39 Main St	open
Pizza Pluss Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	123 E Main St	closed
Quarter Note Cafe	Café	Coffee	42 Orchard St # B	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	9	4	3	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	3	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	11	8	3	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	4	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	3	3	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	2	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	3	4	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	4	5	3	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	19	16	10	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	17	16	7	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	8	6	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	8	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	17	9	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	22	19	10	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	11	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	19	10	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	18	9	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	9	4	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	17	9	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12586. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12589	4.1 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.