BMIE Market 12540

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,045 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,084 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±298 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,802 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,320 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,556 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±853 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$483,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,288 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12540
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-36.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-15.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 9–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12540. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.9	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.3	47	35%	+16.6
Market Momentum Score	20.7	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,856	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	111,320	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	3,084	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	35%	+5.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.1	42	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	8,856	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	111,320	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-36	8	50%	+3.8
10-year restaurant growth	-15.8	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	45.5	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

Italian 9 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 5 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Dessert 6 · Quick service 6 · Specialty food shop 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adelina's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2419 NY-82	open
Agave Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1516-1520 Route 55	open
All City Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers	1643 Route 82	open
Athena Gyro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	1167 RT-55	open
Blondie’s Bagels & Bait	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	1097 RT-55	open
Cafe Deliicious Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1097 Route 55	open
Carlo's Trattoria	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian · American	Rt. 55	open
Casa Amigos Mexican Kitchen & Cantina (Lagrangeville)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1516 State Rte 55	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1520 State Route 55	open
Chopstix	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1520 Route 55 Ste 7	open
Daily Planet	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1202 State Rte 55	open
Dolce Italian Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Italian · Dessert	1610 NY-82	open
Donuts for Days Donut Truck	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Dessert	Dessert		open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1215 State Route 55	open
Familia Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2419 Route 82	open
Fratello's Gourmet Pizza & Cafe	Café	Italian · Pizza · Coffee	1097 RT-55	open
Hangars Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	32 Airway Dr	open
Happy Wok Of Lagrangeville, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1643 Route 82	open
Il Forno Pizzeria LaGrange Il Forno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1151 State Rte 55	open
Kelley's Steak & Spirts	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1187 Route 55	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1111 Ny-55	open
Mountain Products Inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	47 Burdick Rd	open
Pizza Express Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1520 State Rte 55	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1133 State Rte 55	open
Raspberry Fields Farm, LLC	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee		open
Raymee's Pizza & Deli - Pasta and More!	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	10 Dorn Rd	open
Robo's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1482 Route 55	open
Rosa Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1520 Route 55	open
Salsa Fresca Mexican Grill Salsa Fresca Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1110 Route 55	open
Sonnys Restaurant & Pizzeria	Bar	Italian · Pizza	1610 NY-82	open
T N P Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1202 Route 55	open
Taconic Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	1151 State Rte 55	open
Tail Winds Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	32 Airway Dr	open
The She Shed Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6 De Forest Ln	open
Timeless Chocolates	Dessert		1214 Route 55	open
Zoe's Ice Cream Barn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1181 Freedom Plains Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	19	7	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	22	8	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	26	25	9	14	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	23	9	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	25	9	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	21	7	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	17	7	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12540. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12570	3.7 mi	11	2023
12585	4.2 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.