BMIE Market 12570

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,698 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±639 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,662 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,691 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,770 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$466,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12570
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+83.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+175.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12570. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.6	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.1	48	35%	+16.8
Market Momentum Score	29.5	29	25%	+7.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,698	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	128,906	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	2,221	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	35%	+4.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.4	48	25%	+12.0
Population (ACS)	6,698	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	128,906	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	30%	+3.9
20-year restaurant growth	83.3	78	20%	+15.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&J ITALIAN DELI	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	2859 State Rte 55	open
Beekman Square Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2515 Route 55	open
Brother's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian	2540 Route 55	open
Cheesecake Heaven	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	12 Gardner Hollow Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2444 Route 55	open
Elpan Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2515 Route 55	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2540 Route 55	open
Green Haven Bistro	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3 Greenhaven Rd	open
Las Adelitas Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2645 RT-55	open
Montebello Restaurant & Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2645 State Rte 55	open
Pleasant Ridge Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2859 State Rte 55	open
The Roosevelt House	Bar		68 Bryant St	open
The Station Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	2578 State Rte 55	open
The Waterwheel	Winery / distillery / taproom		236 Beekman Poughquag Rd	open
Villas Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3 Green Haven Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	6	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	2	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12570. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12540	3.7 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.