BMIE Market 12569

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±605 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,033 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,826 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,086 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,849 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±429 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$380,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,285 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12569
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12569. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.0	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.5	62	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	62.2	62	25%	+15.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,837	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	100,846	81	40%	+32.6
Households (ACS)	4,033	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.2	56	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	9,837	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	100,846	81	20%	+16.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	27.3	82	50%	+41.0
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · Italian 4 · American 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Catering 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19th Hole	Restaurant (service type not stated)		280 Club House Rd	open
Beijing Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	17 North Ave	open
Bella’s Pizza Pleasant Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	18 West Rd	open
Brendee's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1-5 Maggiacomo Ln	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	1601 Main St	open
Eagle's Nest on the Green	Café · Coffee shop	Burgers · Coffee	280 Club House Rd	open
Eighteen by Coppola's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Maintenance Ln	open
Four Brothers Pizza Inn Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1890 US-44	open
Green Olive Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	1894 US-44	open
International I-Liq Chuan Association	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	133 Pleasant View Rd	open
JB's Bar n' Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	280 Club House Rd	open
Madison's Pizza & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	17 North Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1620 Main St	open
Mcritchies Deli And Pizza	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1322 Route 44	open
Mr P’s Roadhouse	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		1631 Main St	open
Pam's Bun 'N' Run	Food truck	Hot dogs	1518 Route 44	open
Pfbp, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1890 Route 44	open
Pleasant Valley Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1903 Route 44	open
Pleasantvalleypizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1600 Main St	open
Pomodoro Pizza Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3 Maggiacomo Ln	open
Publick House 23	Casual dining · Bar	American	Maggiacomo Ln #5	open
Quattros Farm Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Burgers · Mexican	1600 Main St 0	open
The Bar on West & Main	Bar		18 W Rd	open
The Educated Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated)		175 Gretna Woods Rd	open
The Grille Wagon	Catering · Food truck	BBQ	1395 US-44	open
The Shank Shack at James Baird State Park Golf Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
The Valley Snax Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1449 US-44	open
Tlahco Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5 Maggiacomo Ln	open
Tokyo Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	1616 Main St	open
Utterly Delicious	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1898 US-44	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	6	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	6	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	17	8	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	14	6	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	12	6	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	6	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	5	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12569. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12578	5.0 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.