BMIE Market 12578

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	885 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±173 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,411 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	979 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,194 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,658 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±399 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$372,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12578
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.55) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12578. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.55, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.5	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.7	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	83.1	83	25%	+20.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,249	47	40%	+18.8
Median household income (ACS)	108,194	86	40%	+34.3
Households (ACS)	885	47	20%	+9.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	35.6	16	25%	+3.9
Population (ACS)	2,249	47	20%	+9.4
Median household income (ACS)	108,194	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · Dessert 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Copperfields Bar and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2571 Route 44	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2406 US-44	open
Fireside Barbecue & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	1920 Salt Point Turnpike	open
Hurley Road House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	252 Hurley Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2406 Rte 44	open
La Puerta Azul	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2510 Route 44	open
Pizza Margherita Salt Point	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2517 Us-44	open
Riding and Driving Club	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2545 US-44	open
Ruth's Brownie Kitchen	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2517 US-44	open
Salt Point Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	59 Cottage St	open
Salt Point Market and Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Coffee	2517 US-44	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	I-87	open
The Blue Door Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	2510 Route 44	open
Zest gyro & Mediterranean Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	2517 US-44	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12578. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12569	5.0 mi	14	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.