BMIE Market 13029

Onondaga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,725 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±952 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,081 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,109 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,999 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,878 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,575 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$833 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±679 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$249,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,344 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13029
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13029. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.6	74	40%	+29.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.8	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	19.8	20	25%	+5.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,725	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	103,878	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	3,081	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.7	66	25%	+16.5
Population (ACS)	7,725	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	103,878	83	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 7 · Café 6 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bear Creek Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		5480 Bartel Rd	open
Bear Creek Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers	5480 Bartel Rd	open
Black OPS BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	9633 White Tail Path	open
Brewer Union Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	5771 Miller Rd	open
Brewerton Diner	Casual dining	American	5771 Miller Rd	open
Brick House Cafe	Café	Coffee	9570 Brewerton Rd	open
Cuse cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	9670 Brewerton Rd	open
Dg’s Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9334 Brewerton Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	9555 Brewerton Rd	open
Grub on the Run	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		9625 Brewerton Rd	open
Jake's Grub & Grog	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	7 River Island Dr	open
Lacuna-Brewerton	Bar		9686 Brewerton Rd	open
Lakeside Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	9680 Brewerton Rd	open
Lin Li Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5501 Bartel Rd #2	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	BARTELL AVENUE NY US, 5501 Bartel Rd	open
McClowry's Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food		open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9563 Brewerton Rd	open
Nicole's Homemade Treats	Dessert	Dessert	9493 Chestnut St	open
Riverbank Clubhouse	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		9711 Ethel Rd	open
Rosie's Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · American	9689 Brewerton Rd	open
State Craft Tap House	Bar		9461 Brewerton Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5500 Bartell Rd Suite 1	open
The Cafe Bella Luna	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Coffee	9633 Brewerton Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	5600 Bartel Rd	open
Top This Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	9664 Brewerton Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	12	6	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	15	12	4	6	2	3	NAICS2002
2004	15	14	4	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	2	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	2	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	1	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	2	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	8	1	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	2	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13029. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13041	3.1 mi	7	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.