BMIE Market 13041

Onondaga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±829 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,576 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±305 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,705 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,992 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,049 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,570 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$226,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,887 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13041
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-61.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	0 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -1.1 per year, r² 0.82) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13041. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -1.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.82, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.2	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.8	57	35%	+19.9
Market Momentum Score	10.3	10	25%	+2.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,330	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	120,188	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	4,576	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.7	89	25%	+22.3
Population (ACS)	12,330	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	120,188	90	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	-61.1	2	20%	+0.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Chinese Gourmet Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4155 State Route 31	open
Detail Johnny's Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · Italian	5317 Teramo Cir	open
Docks Grill At Pirates Cove Marina	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		9170 Horseshoe Island Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	4206 Nys Route 31	open
Euclid Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4285 NY-31	open
Freight Yard Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4975 NY-31	open
Friendly's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	Rte 31 4081 31	open
Gino & Joe's Pizza Gino & Joe's Pizza Liverpool	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4160 NY-31	open
Greenies Golf Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4595 NY-31	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4211 NY-31	open
Little Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4599 NY-31	open
Olive Garden Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4125 State Route 31	open
Pirate's Cove Marina	Bar		9170 Horseshoe Island Rd	open
Razorback Barbecue	Food truck	BBQ	8272 Maple Rd	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4081 Rte 31	open
Shamrock Shack	Bar	British / Irish pub food	5156 Lyle Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	3857 Hwy 31	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3857 NY-31	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8770 Dell Center Drive	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4206 Route 31	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5194 W Taft Road, #C	open
Uncle Chubby's Inc.	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	5282 Caughdenoy Rd	open
Wrap It Up Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	4130 State Route 31	open
Wrap It Up Express	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4130 NY-31	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	21	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	23	19	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	17	14	5	4	5	3	NAICS1997
1999	19	15	6	4	5	3	NAICS1997
2000	17	14	5	6	3	3	NAICS1997
2001	17	14	5	6	3	3	NAICS1997
2002	20	17	5	9	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	20	18	5	9	4	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	16	4	9	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	5	9	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	21	20	6	11	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	24	23	8	11	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	20	7	8	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	6	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13041. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13090	2.9 mi	50	2023
13029	3.1 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.