BMIE Market 13032

Madison County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±689 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±267 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,790 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,171 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$945 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$165,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	82.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13032
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 0–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.8 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13032. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.3	70	40%	+28.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.0	52	35%	+18.2
Market Momentum Score	27.5	28	25%	+6.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,850	74	40%	+29.8
Median household income (ACS)	81,171	64	40%	+25.5
Households (ACS)	5,381	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.3	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	12,850	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	81,171	64	20%	+12.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

American 14 · Dessert 8 · Juice / smoothies 7 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 6 · Italian 6 · Pizza 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · BBQ 3 · Japanese 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Sushi 3 · Asian 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 8 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Quick service 6 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Other 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbott's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	356 S Peterboro St	open
Back Roads Tavern	Bar	American	4299 Canal Rd	open
Basilio-Buda "Taste of the Fair"	Bar		118 N Court St	open
Bimbo Bakeries USA Bimbo Bakeries USA	Bakery	Bakery	137 Dominic Bruno Blvd	open
Bread and Batter Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · Breakfast		open
Brown Brothers BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	214 S Peterboro St	open
Cadwell Restaurant Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7843 Oxbow Rd	open
Canastota Bagels and Subs	Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Dessert · Bakery · Sandwiches	7843 Oxbow Rd	open
Casatina's Italian Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	115 N Main St	open
Center Street Market	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Pizza · Coffee · Bakery	106 Center St	open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2188 Tag Rd, NY State Thruway	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	101 N Peterboro St	open
CONEHEADS CARIBBEAN ICE CREAM Coneheads Ice Cream “Oneida”	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	3728 NY-31	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3802 NY-31	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	369 North Peterboro St	open
Erie Canal Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		135 S Peterboro St	open
Flo's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3223 NY-31	open
Freedom’s Hog Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2597 NY-31	open
Gary's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6367 Lakeshore Rd S	open
Graziano's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	409 N Peterboro St	open
Hemingways Diner Llc	Casual dining	American	517 N Main St	open
Hometown Pizzeria Canastota Mark's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3400 Seneca Tpke	open
Joe’s New York Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	200 S Peterboro St	open
Johnnie's Pier 31	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	3653 NY-31	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	115 North Main Street	open
La Bamba Mtz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	139 S Peterboro St	open
Lauro's Italian Restaurant And Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3177 Seneca Tpke	open
Lee's Barbeque Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3434 NY-5	open
Lemon Juice shop	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	144 S Peterboro St	open
Lucky Dogs Pizza & Taproom	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2370 NY-31	open
Lucky Dogs Pizzeria & Taproom	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	2370 NY-31	open
Mama Bear's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	104 N Peterboro St	open
Maple Leaf Homestead Farm Stand	Bakery	Bakery	6688 Nelson Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	13 N Peterboro St	open
mesagrande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	190 Township Blvd	open
Meyers Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	7846 Oxbow Rd	open
Oneida Lake Brew Haus	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		6266 Lakeshore Rd S	open
Penny Roll Candy Store Penny Roll Candy Store	Dessert · Coffee shop	Coffee	3400 Seneca Tpke	open
Penny's Candy Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	124 E Hickory St	open
Pepi's Pizza II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Oxbow Rd	open
Prevo's Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	523 N Main St	open
Quiznos - Closed	Other	Sandwiches	356 South Peterboro St	open
Sassy Canastota	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	144 S Peterboro St	open
Sbarro	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2188 Tag Rd	open
Shamso Sushi Canastota Meteorologist Michael Buell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	144 S Peterboro St	open
Shelley's DELI	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3885 Seneca Tpke	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2188 Tag Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3400 Seneca Tpke	open
Sushi S fsj	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	127 Genesee St	open
Swiss Coffee Shop	Coffee shop	Coffee	144 S Peterboro St	open
The Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	144 S Peterboro St	open
The burger Den Kaifu Sushi	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	2584 Seneca Tpke	open
The Crusty Cup	Bakery	Bakery	3434 Seneca Tpke	open
The Raider Grill & Griddle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	523 North Main Street	open
The Smoothie Talent	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	144 S Peterboro St	open
The South Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Mexican	144 S Peterboro St	open
The Toast	Casual dining	American	139 S Peterboro St	open
Theodore's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3231 Seneca Turnpike	open
Three Pines	Bar		116 N Peterboro St	open
Tp Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3231 Seneca Tpke	open
Uncle J’s Low Bridge Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian · British / Irish pub food	150 Canal St	open
Whitewater Tavern	Bar		3753 State Route 31	open
Danesi Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	109 N Peterboro St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	20	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	21	17	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	21	20	11	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	20	18	11	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	20	18	11	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	11	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	21	20	11	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	20	16	11	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	20	14	9	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	24	17	12	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	28	20	11	8	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	25	19	13	6	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	19	13	7	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	17	12	6	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	19	14	8	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	15	10	5	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	12	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13032. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13163	3.0 mi	1	2016
13037	4.6 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.