BMIE Market 13037

Madison County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,607 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±585 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,838 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,897 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,727 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$83,963 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$819 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$213,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,836 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13037
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13037. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.9	69	40%	+27.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.7	49	35%	+17.0
Market Momentum Score	41.2	41	25%	+10.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,607	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	83,963	67	40%	+26.8
Households (ACS)	3,838	70	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.5	62	25%	+15.6
Population (ACS)	9,607	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	83,963	67	20%	+13.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-14.3	15	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 5 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Buck's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	239 Genesee St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	520 Genesee St	open
Chittenango Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	500 Genesee St	open
Dads Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7562 Lakeport Rd	open
Darlene's Kitchen	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	302 Genesee St	open
DeMario's Eatery	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	249 NY-13	open
Duke’s Coop & Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	1922 New Boston Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	900 E Genesee St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		900 E Genesee St	open
Heart & Courage Saloon	Bar		W Genesee St	open
La Cocina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	211 Genesee St	open
Lakeport Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	1859 NY-31	open
New China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	524 Genesee St	open
Nina's Pizzeria & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		800 Genesee Tpke	open
Nina's Pizzeria & Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	800 E Genesee St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	500 Genesee St	open
Ruby Begonia's Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	236 Genesee St	open
Serendipity Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	620 E Genesee St	open
Shannon's Place	Bar · Casual dining	American	262 Genesee St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	505 Genesee St	open
Ten Pin Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	102 Seneca St	open
The Burgers Of Madison County	Restaurant (service type not stated)		800 W Genesee St	open
The Chitt Creek Ranch Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1636 Fyler Rd	open
The Fiddlehead Cafe And Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		211 Genesee St Ste 4	open
The North Pole	Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	620 Genesee Turnpike	open
The Ridge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1281 Salt Springs Rd	open
Westcott Brewery	Brewery / taproom		8278 Lakeport Rd	open
Wicked Good Pizza & Plates	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	800 W Genesee St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	16	10	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	19	17	9	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	9	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	17	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	16	8	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	20	19	8	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	7	8	3	2	NAICS2007
2009	18	16	7	6	3	2	NAICS2007
2010	16	14	8	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	16	13	6	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	16	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	8	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13037. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13032	4.6 mi	12	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.