BMIE Market 13215

Onondaga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±636 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,654 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,245 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,653 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,864 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,665 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,343 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±155 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$304,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13215
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-18.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13215. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.0	81	40%	+32.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.2	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	53.7	54	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,751	76	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	113,864	88	40%	+35.3
Households (ACS)	5,654	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.1	88	25%	+21.9
Population (ACS)	14,751	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	113,864	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 4 · American 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amore Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4879 South Ave	open
Big O Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4915 Grolier Rd	open
Byrne Dairy and Deli Byrne Dairy	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4815 W Seneca Tpke	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	4886 W Seneca Tpke	open
EAT eggs and toast	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	4800 McDonald Rd	open
Exhale Cafe & Bake Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	481 Westbrook Hills Dr	open
Finally Ours	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	3788 W Seneca Tpke	open
Frogger's on the Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4543 W Seneca Tpke	open
Gannon's Ice Cream Gannon's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4800 McDonald Rd ( at Velasko Rd )	open
Griffin Hill Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Griffin Road	open
Ian Donuts, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4886 W Seneca Tpke	open
Inn of the Seasons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4311 W Seneca Turnpike	open
Lannie's	Bar · Casual dining		5076 Velasko Rd	open
Pita Pita	Other	Sandwiches · Mediterranean · Greek	4841 South Ave	open
Red Hawk Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4504 Bussey Rd	open
Sardo's Pizza and Fish Fry Sardo's Pizza and Fishfry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4879 South Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	4585 W Seneca Tpke	open
The Dirty Toad	Bar · Casual dining		5071 Onondaga Rd	open
The. 5.1.1	Bar		4113 W Seneca Tpke	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop	Coffee	4464 W Seneca Tpke	open
Upstairs Dining Room At Kelleys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Velasko Pizzeria & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	4800 McDonald Rd	open
Chelsea's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5076 Velasko Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	3	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	9	—	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	9	—	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13215. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13207	3.8 mi	6	2023
13120	3.9 mi	3	2023
13219	4.0 mi	41	2023
13205	4.5 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.