BMIE Market 14006

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,260 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±655 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,224 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±326 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,858 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,920 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,972 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,135 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$950 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±133 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$166,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,960 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14006
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-6.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14006. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	58.4	58	40%	+23.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.1	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	32.3	32	25%	+8.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,260	70	40%	+27.9
Median household income (ACS)	65,972	40	40%	+16.2
Households (ACS)	4,224	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.1	52	25%	+13.1
Population (ACS)	9,260	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	65,972	40	20%	+8.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.7	21	50%	+10.7
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	-6.7	18	20%	+3.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 8 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Bar 10 · Dessert 8 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angola Nick Charlap's Ice Cream Nick Charlap's Ice Cream, Inc.	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9049 Erie Rd	open
Angola's China Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	167 N Main St	open
Angola's Taste of The Midway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	97 N Main St	open
Azalia's Juicery	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	77 N Main St	open
Beachside Bar and Grill at Grandview Bay Golf Course	Bar	American	444 Central Ave	open
Captain Kidds Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8934 Lake Shore Rd	open
Carvel Express Auntie Anne's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery · Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	Mile Marker 447	open
Carvel Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts	Mile Marker 447 NY State Thruway	open
Castaway's Waterfront Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	188 Kennedy Ave	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service		Mile Post 447 East & West, NY State Thruway	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	447 Interstate 90	open
Connors Hot Dog Stand	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	8905 Lake Shore Rd	open
DaWn's Restaurant & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	69 N Main St	open
Desperados Barbecue & Catering Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	29 Commercial St	open
DiBello’s Deli and Bakery	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	15 N Main St	open
Ella's Pizza & Pasta	Dessert · Quick service	Pizza	4105 Inwood Ave	open
Fairview Pub	Bar			open
Fattie G’s Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8746 Erie Rd #5	open
Gram’s Pierogi house	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	22 S Main St	open
Grassos tiki bar!	Bar		Bennett Rd	open
J. J. Parks Pub Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		188 Kennedy Ave	open
Jovial Bar II Inc	Bar		9320 Erie Rd	open
Maria's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9120 Erie Rd	open
Pat's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Pizza · Coffee	9542 Lake Shore Rd	open
Pat's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8923 Erie Rd	open
Paulette's Blue Collar Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	459 Herr Rd	open
Shawna's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8196 Erie Rd	open
South Shore Beach Club Dba Turtle Joe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8966 Lake Shore Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	I-90	open
Stella's old fashioned pierogi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · German / Eastern European	22 S Main St	open
Stroh's Tavern	Bar		9566 Lake Shore Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	The New York State Thruway, Subway	open
T. E. Connors, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8905 Lake Shore Rd	open
Takame sushi angola	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	Nova vida Camama	open
Tavern 37	Bar		37 Commercial St	open
The Beach Club At Mickey Rats	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	8934 Lake Shore Rd	open
The Lucy Goose	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	444 Central Ave	open
The Toasted Hog	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Juice / smoothies · American	9297 Erie Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	8645 Erie Rd	open
Tom Tom's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		69 N Main St	open
Tomco Express Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		88 Lake St	open
Tredos Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8746 Erie Rd	open
Turtle Joes Sandbar	Bar · Casual dining		8966 Lake Shore Rd	open
Unique Sweets Cake Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	58 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	15	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1995	20	14	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	24	16	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1997	24	17	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	23	12	2	8	2	7	NAICS1997
1999	24	14	3	9	2	7	NAICS1997
2000	22	12	3	8	1	8	NAICS1997
2001	24	14	3	10	1	8	NAICS1997
2002	25	14	2	11	1	8	NAICS1997
2003	23	15	4	10	1	5	NAICS2002
2004	25	17	7	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	21	14	6	7	1	5	NAICS2002
2006	21	13	3	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2007	19	13	4	7	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	24	16	6	8	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	23	16	7	7	2	4	NAICS2007
2010	22	15	7	6	2	4	NAICS2007
2011	22	15	7	6	2	4	NAICS2007
2012	19	13	7	4	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	18	12	6	4	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	18	12	7	4	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	17	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	18	13	8	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	21	17	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	15	7	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	24	17	7	7	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	21	15	6	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	24	18	6	9	3	3	NAICS2017
2022	25	18	3	11	4	4	NAICS2022
2023	20	14	3	7	4	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14006. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14027	2.7 mi	2	1997
14047	4.2 mi	8	2023
14061	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.