BMIE Market 14047

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±606 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,554 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±243 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,440 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,757 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,407 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$958 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$194,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,266 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14047
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-38.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	12 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14047. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.6	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.3	43	35%	+15.1
Market Momentum Score	11.8	12	25%	+2.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,013	63	40%	+25.4
Median household income (ACS)	78,816	61	40%	+24.3
Households (ACS)	2,554	65	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.3	59	25%	+14.8
Population (ACS)	6,013	63	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	78,816	61	20%	+12.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 12 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 4 · Asian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Greek 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bull Riders BBQ & Mac	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ	6884 Erie Rd	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6938 Erie Rd	open
Derby Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6901 Erie Rd Ste a	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6890 Erie Rd	open
Meadowbrook Restaurant and Bar	Bar		6848 Erie Rd	open
Merkel Manor	Bar	American	6578 Putnam Dr	open
NIKOS MEDITERRANEAN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Pizza · Mediterranean	6884 ERIE Rd	open
Oasis Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	6811 Erie Rd	open
Pasquale's Pasquale's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	6824 Erie Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6914 Erie Road	open
Scallywags	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	6558 Lake Shore Rd	open
Shore House Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6558 Lake Shore Rd	open
Steveo's Tacos & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6811 Erie Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6853 Erie Rd	open
The Bagel Jar	Bakery	Bakery · American	6940 Erie Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service	Coffee · Breakfast	6933 Erie Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6914 Erie Rd	open
Joey V's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6884 Erie Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	11	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	2	3	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	2	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	13	10	3	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	4	6	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	14	11	5	5	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	15	11	5	6	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	6	9	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	16	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	4	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	15	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	14	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14047. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14112	2.5 mi	—
14085	3.5 mi	3	2023
14006	4.2 mi	14	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.