BMIE Market 14052

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,514 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,402 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,329 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,271 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,970 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,791 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,066 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$343,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,863 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	61.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	39 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14052
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+105.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+56.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 37–45) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14052. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.1	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.5	58	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	64.8	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,514	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	99,970	81	40%	+32.4
Households (ACS)	7,402	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.4	50	35%	+17.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.3	32	25%	+8.0
Population (ACS)	17,514	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	99,970	81	20%	+16.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	5.4	50	30%	+15.0
20-year restaurant growth	105.3	85	20%	+17.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (98)

By cuisine

American 18 · Dessert 13 · Coffee 12 · Bakery 8 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Breakfast 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · African 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 62 · Bar 24 · Casual dining 17 · Dessert 14 · Bakery 11 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Quick service 7 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
189 Burger	Bar	Burgers	189 Main St	open
42 North Brewing Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		25 Pine St	open
American Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7901 Seneca St	open
Angelina's	Bar		7901 Seneca St	open
Arriba Tortilla, Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	40 Riley St	open
Aurora Brew Works	Bar · Brewery / taproom		191 Main St	open
Aurora Cider House	Bar		198 Main St	open
Aurora International Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		206 Main St	open
Aurora Sweets	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Dessert · Tea / bubble tea · Breakfast	718 Main St	open
Babcia's Pierogi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	33 Elm St	open
Bar-Bill Tavern Bar Bill Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	185 Main St	open
Barn Dog Craft Distilling	Winery / distillery / taproom		1851 Four Rod Rd	open
Bica e Vinho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	261 Mill Rd	open
Blessings Bakery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	695 Main St	open
Blue Eyed Baker	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	636 E Fillmore Ave	open
Charlie The Butcher's Express Charlie The Butcher's Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	495 Main St	open
Charlie's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	510 Main St	open
Chelle Street Station	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		Fillmore Ave	open
Craft Tap House	Bar		701 Main St	open
Daily's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		594 Main St	open
dopest dough	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	695 Main St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	230 Main St	open
East Aurora Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		667 Oakwood Ave	open
East Aurora Pour House	Bar		701 Main St	open
East Aurora Village Cafe	Café	Coffee	720 Main St	open
East End Grill & Taproom	Restaurant (service type not stated)		701 Main St	open
Elm Street Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	72 Elm St	open
Everything Pie Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · American	East Aurora Farmers Market, Riley St.. Fisher Price Lot	open
Fifth Avenue Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	300 Gleed Ave	open
Firefly Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	700 Main St	open
Firemans Field	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Fit E.a. Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		209 Main St	open
Fowler's Chocolates	Dessert		671 Main St	open
Gold Summit Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea	Four Rod Road	open
Great Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		123 Grey St	open
Hog Wild BBQ & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	180 Main St	open
Homegrown Kitchen	Café · Fast casual	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	650 Main St	open
Homestyle Catering Of Wny Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7340 Seneca St	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		172 Main St	open
Jim's SteakOut	Other	Sandwiches	140 Grey St	open
Kaysea Creative Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		185 Main St	open
King Ferry Bowling Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1007 E Main St	open
Kodiak Jacks Bar, Grill, Grove & Catering	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3481 Two Rod Rd	open
Kone King East	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	117 Hamburg St	open
Kornerstone Cafe & Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	33 Elm St	open
Krezy Cookie	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	221 Beech Rd	open
Las Brasas Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	34 Hamburg St	open
Left Coast Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	54 Elm St	open
Little Red Caboose	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	79 Elm St	open
Mabel’s Cafe & Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	11167 Big Tree Rd	open
Mambrino King Wine Bar	Casual dining · Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	720 Main St	open
Manosalwa Pizza And Grill Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2575 Eldridge Rd	open
Mario’s Bistro & Brews	Casual dining		1342 Quaker Rd	open
Marta's Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Sandwiches	404 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	17 Ernst Pl	open
Medici House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		634 Main St	open
Mighty Taco Mighty Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	123 Grey St	open
Mikey Dees Cafe And Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	227 Main St	open
Mister's Bar and Lanes	Bar		206 Main St	open
Mogul's Tavern & Speed Shop	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1595 Sweet Rd	open
Mr. Pot Pie	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	718 Main St	open
Mr. Pot Pie	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	718 Main St	open
North Star Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		7340 Seneca St	open
Old Orchard Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2095 Blakeley Corners Rd	open
Panda Buffet	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		123 Grey St	open
Pasquale's Italian Restaurant Pasquale's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	242 Main St	open
Pizza Del Aureo's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	615 Oakwood Ave	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	168 Quaker Rd	open
Pizzeria Florian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	650 Main St	open
Pstl Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7901 Seneca St	open
Red's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	634 Main St	open
Rick's On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	687 Main St	open
Riley Street Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	27 Riley St	open
Rookies Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining		701 Main St	open
Rosie's Handcrafted Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	431 Main St	open
Smoke 'n Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	1851 Four Rod Rd	open
Sorrentino's Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	142 Grey St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	123 Grey St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	624 Main St	open
Taste Bistro & Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	634 Main St	open
The Bar at Main & Hamlin	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	198 Main St	open
The Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	586 Main St	open
The General Riley's Speakeasy	Bar		72 Elm St	open
The Griffon Gastropub Griffon Brewery and Gastropub - Lewiston	Casual dining · Bar		634 Main St	open
The Irishman Pub And Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	160 Main St	open
The Iron Kettle Landmark Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1009 Olean Rd	open
The Maine Bite	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Main St	open
The Poked Yolk East Aurora Yolk.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	227 Main St	open
Theas Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	African	634 Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	44 Hamburg St	open
Total Dogs Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		634 Main St Rear	open
Touka Japanese Sushi, Hibachi & Poke Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	16 Buffalo Rd	open
Vigor Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls	123 Nowhere avenue	open
Wales Center Hotel	Casual dining · Bar	American	12243 Big Tree Rd	open
Wallenwein's Hotel	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		641 Oakwood Ave	open
Whitetail Food Plots USA	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2124 Center St	open
Wild Ginger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	16 Buffalo Rd	open
Yoshiea.com	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	33 Elm St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	29	25	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	30	26	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	30	25	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	30	26	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	27	20	10	7	3	4	NAICS1997
1999	27	20	11	6	3	5	NAICS1997
2000	26	19	12	3	4	5	NAICS1997
2001	27	20	12	3	5	4	NAICS1997
2002	28	22	15	5	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	29	19	12	6	1	5	NAICS2002
2004	34	23	13	9	1	5	NAICS2002
2005	36	25	13	10	2	4	NAICS2002
2006	32	24	15	7	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	40	31	18	10	3	2	NAICS2002
2008	43	33	16	13	3	4	NAICS2007
2009	40	30	14	12	3	4	NAICS2007
2010	40	30	15	13	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	45	35	17	13	4	4	NAICS2007
2012	46	37	20	13	4	3	NAICS2012
2013	48	37	20	12	4	2	NAICS2012
2014	44	34	20	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	43	33	18	10	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	48	37	20	11	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	51	39	20	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	47	36	19	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	53	40	23	13	3	4	NAICS2017
2020	50	39	20	14	4	3	NAICS2017
2021	51	39	19	15	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	47	38	21	12	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	49	39	21	14	4	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14052. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14169	2.8 mi	1	2016
14139	4.3 mi	3	2023
14059	4.9 mi	14	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.