BMIE Market 14059

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,138 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±631 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,511 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,933 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,716 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,891 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,160 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±522 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$346,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,712 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14059
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-6.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 10–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14059. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.8	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.6	69	35%	+24.0
Market Momentum Score	67.0	67	25%	+16.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,138	69	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	113,555	88	40%	+35.2
Households (ACS)	3,511	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	35%	+24.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	9,138	69	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	113,555	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	55.6	69	20%	+13.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · American 5 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Dessert 2 · Mexican 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Dessert 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2221 Transit Rd. Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2221 Transit Rd	open
Alton's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2221 Transit Rd	open
Blue Lantern Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6120 Seneca St	open
Bravo Cafe & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5781 Seneca St	open
Don Juan Mexican Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7200 Seneca St	open
Dry Dock Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7151 Seneca St	open
El Amigo Bar and Mexican Restaurant LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Mexican	5781 Seneca St	open
Elma Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6650 Clinton St	open
Elma Pizza Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2510 Bowen Rd	open
Elma Towne Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	6650 Clinton St	open
Elmhurst 1925	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Fuer Pub	Bar			open
Just Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3131 Transit Rd	open
Just Pizza and Wing Co. Elma	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2351 Bowen Rd	open
Mary Moo’s	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3131 Transit Rd	open
Matty's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1271 Bowen Rd	open
Montemaggiore Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6150 Seneca St	open
Pho Cali	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	5952 Seneca St	open
Pizza Delizia Italian Classics	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2510 Bowen Rd	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	950 Maple Rd	open
Rhythmic Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7020 Clinton St	open
Santino's Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6629 Clinton St	open
Shelley's Big Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2359 Bowen Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2324 Bowen Rd	open
The Pickle Lady	Food truck	American	2590 Bullis Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	661 Jamison Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	950 Maple St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service	Coffee	2137 Transit Rd	open
TSG BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	6272 Seneca St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	13	6	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	16	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	17	11	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14059. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14102	4.1 mi	1	2016
14052	4.9 mi	39	2023
14086	5.0 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.