BMIE Market 14086
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 35,635 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±689 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 14,987 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±575 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 31,847 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,609 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $99,499 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,787 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 46.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±132 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $294,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,674 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 33.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14086 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +6.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +3.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +61.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +47.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 32 (range 26–38) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14086. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 87.7 | 88 | 40% | +35.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 69.9 | 70 | 35% | +24.5 |
| Market Momentum Score | 60.3 | 60 | 25% | +15.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 35,635 | 92 | 40% | +36.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 99,499 | 81 | 40% | +32.2 |
| Households (ACS) | 14,987 | 93 | 20% | +18.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.0 | 48 | 35% | +16.9 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.5 | 74 | 25% | +18.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 35,635 | 92 | 20% | +18.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 99,499 | 81 | 20% | +16.1 |
Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 6.3 | 63 | 50% | +31.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.0 | 48 | 30% | +14.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 61.9 | 72 | 20% | +14.3 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (85)
By cuisine
Pizza 15 · Bakery 14 · American 13 · Coffee 13 · Italian 9 · Dessert 8 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Chinese 3 · BBQ 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Bar 18 · Bakery 17 · Casual dining 12 · Dessert 10 · Quick service 9 · Coffee shop 8 · Café 7 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5389 Genesee Street Lancaster New York Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5389 Genesee St | open | |
| 99 Brick Oven Bar & Grille | Casual dining · Bar | Pizza · Italian | 99 Aurora St | open |
| Al-e-oops | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 5389 Genesee St | open |
| Bake Mark USA BakeMark | Bakery | Bakery | 3765 Walden Ave | open |
| Balanced Bite | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee · Asian | 5476 Broadway | open |
| Bamboo Ridge | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Asian · American | 3574 Walden Ave | open |
| Big Papa's Creamery | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 20 W Main St | open |
| Bimbo Bakeries USA Bimbo Bakeries USA | Bakery | Bakery | 2900 Commerce Pkwy | open |
| Bosco's Bakery at Furry Friends | Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 11 W Main St | open |
| Boston Hotel's Steak & Crab | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · Seafood · American | 5555 Genesee St | open |
| Bozzys in Lancaster | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Middle Eastern | 155 Lake Ave | open |
| Branch Way Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 14 Branch Way | open |
| Brandos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 470 Aurora St | open |
| Brazen Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 5839 Genesee St | open | |
| Bruno's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 5259 Broadway | open |
| Buffalove Bar-Age | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | open | ||
| Butts & Ashes BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 36 Southpoint Dr | open |
| China One China One | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 6363 Transit Rd #700 | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle | Quick service | 6727 Transit Rd | open | |
| Chrusciki Bakery & Cafe | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 6461 Transit Rd | open |
| Chrusciki Bakery Lancaster | Bakery | Bakery | 80 W Drullard Ave | open |
| Dairy Queen Grill & Chill | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches | 6711 Transit Rd | open |
| Dark Forest Chocolate Makers, Inc. | Dessert | Dessert | 11 W Main St | open |
| Early Bird Bakery & Cafe | Bakery | Bakery | 85 Central Ave | open |
| El Amigo Tacos and Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3580 Walden Ave | open |
| Flavor Restaurant and Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 6432 Genesee St | open |
| Frank's Grille | Casual dining · Bar | American | 5820 Broadway | open |
| Frosty's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5500 Broadway | open |
| Gabrielle's Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 19 W Main St Ste 200 | open |
| Gabrielle's Bakery | Bakery · Coffee shop · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 19 W Main St Suite 200 | open |
| Gino's Italian Bakery by nicolena | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 85 Central Ave | open | |
| Grapevine D’vine | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5500 Broadway St | open | |
| Great Aussie Bite | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 121 Fernott Dr | open | |
| Green Buffalo Pub | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 165 Lake Ave | open |
| Lancaster Coffee Co. & Cafe | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee · American | 24 Central Ave | open |
| Lancaster's Broadway Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 5430 Broadway | open |
| Leo's Pizzeria Lancaster Leo's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 473 Aurora St | open |
| Lilly Belle Meads | Brewery / taproom | 11 W Main St | open | |
| Long Weekend Bakery + Cafe | Bakery | Bakery | 34 Central Ave | open |
| Longneckers | Bar | 3587 Walden Ave | open | |
| LT's Olde Tyme Pizza and Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 470 Aurora St | open |
| Main Moon Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 5197 Broadway | open |
| Mooney's Sports Bar & Grill Mooney's - Corning, NY | Casual dining · Bar | American | 6513 Broadway | open |
| Muscarella's Pizzeria Lancaster Ny | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 470 Aurora St | open |
| Nicole’s Sweet Spot | Bakery | Bakery | 7 Crawford St | open |
| Olive Tree Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 5240 Broadway | open |
| Pallet Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Coffee · American | 155 Lake Ave | open |
| Papa's Pizza Oven Papa’s Pizza Oven | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 155 Lake Ave | open |
| Papi Grande's Mexican Restaurant and Cantina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 20 W Main St | open |
| Parkside Pizza & More | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 155 Lake Ave | open |
| Picasso's Pizza Picasso's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 5413 Broadway St | open |
| Pizza 151 Pizza 151 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 11 W Main St Ste 900-950 | open |
| Poor Richard’s Pub | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Como Park Blvd | open | |
| Retreat cupcakes | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 519 Pleasant View Dr | open |
| Ripa's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 4218 Walden Ave | open |
| Rise Baking Company | Bakery | Bakery | 3765 Walden Ave | open |
| Ronny's Take Out | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 222 Aurora St | open |
| Shafer's Double Nickel Pub | Bar | British / Irish pub food | West Main Street, 10 W Main St | open |
| Simply Italiano Inc | Bakery | Bakery | 85 Central Ave | open |
| Six Friends Cabernet | Bar | 5259 Broadway St | open | |
| Skoob's Village Grille | Bar · Casual dining | American | 50 Central Ave | open |
| Southern Belle Diner | Casual dining | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 3575 Walden Ave | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4221 Walden Ave. | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 3615 Walden Ave Ste 100 | open |
| Sunflower Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 17 Highland Pl | open | |
| Symposium Wine Bar | Bar | 19 W Main St Ste 400 | open | |
| Symposium Wine Bar | Bar | Spanish / tapas | 19 W Main St | open |
| The Pizza Firm | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3575 Walden Ave | open |
| The Pizza Heist | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 231 Aurora St | open |
| The Rooted Cup | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 20 W Main St | open |
| The Stirring Coffee House | Coffee shop | Coffee | 6090 Broadway | open |
| The Tap Room At Clarksburg Cider | Bar | 4493 Walden Ave | open | |
| The Village Scoop Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 318 Central Ave | open |
| The Yelling Goat | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 205 Central Ave | open | |
| Til Brewing | Brewery / taproom | 11 W Main St Ste 102 | open | |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 470 Aurora St | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service | Coffee · Breakfast | 5390 Genesee St | open |
| Tim Hortons | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 5827 Broadway St | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 4220 4222 Walden Ave | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 3600 Walden Ave | open |
| Two Guys Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3987 Walden Ave | open |
| United China Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 3574 Walden Ave | open |
| Vargo's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3575 Walden Ave | open |
| Wayland Brewing Lancaster | Brewery / taproom · Bar | open | ||
| Wet Willy's Bar & Chill | Casual dining · Bar | 62 Village Vw | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 29 | 23 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 31 | 25 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 39 | 30 | — | — | — | 9 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 38 | 28 | — | — | — | 10 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 34 | 20 | 11 | 9 | — | 12 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 32 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 9 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 37 | 25 | 16 | 9 | — | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 31 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 29 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 34 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 7 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 35 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 37 | 27 | 15 | 11 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 34 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 35 | 29 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 37 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 38 | 33 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 38 | 32 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 35 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 37 | 30 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 40 | 34 | 16 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 39 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 35 | 27 | 12 | 12 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 34 | 27 | 13 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 42 | 33 | 12 | 18 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 44 | 35 | 14 | 15 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 45 | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 4 | NAICS2022 |