BMIE Market 14067

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,976 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±582 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,690 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,040 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,018 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,282 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$802 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±220 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$184,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,459 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	49.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14067
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14067. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.6	66	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.7	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	34.3	34	25%	+8.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,976	57	40%	+22.7
Median household income (ACS)	95,671	78	40%	+31.2
Households (ACS)	1,690	58	20%	+11.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.6	62	25%	+15.5
Population (ACS)	3,976	57	20%	+11.4
Median household income (ACS)	95,671	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1

By type

Bar 6 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Casual dining 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Becker Brewing Co. & Vizcarra Vineyards	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3724 Quaker Rd	open
Canalside Inn	Bar · Casual dining	American	4431 Main St	open
Chop's Shop Pizzeria	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	8405 Rochester Rd	open
Confectionately Yours	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery	8881 Ridge Rd	open
Cup & Saucer Family Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7790 Ridge Rd	open
Domaritaville	Bar		3803 Brooks Rd	open
Greenliefs	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	8503 Rochester Rd	open
Librock Beef	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5288 Gasport Rd	open
Nickleback Gasport	Bar		7646 Rochester Rd	open
Ports Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	8396 State St	open
Press Vineyard Retreat at Becker Farms	Winery / distillery / taproom		Quaker Rd	open
The Dog House	Bar		4853 Gasport Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	10	8	4	3	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	4	2	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	5	3	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	6	3	1	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	7	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	8	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	9	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	8	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14067. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14105	4.1 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.