BMIE Market 14105

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,026 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,566 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,954 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,841 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$794 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$168,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,380 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14105
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-44.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-44.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	8 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14105. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.0	67	40%	+26.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.5	49	35%	+17.0
Market Momentum Score	8.4	8	25%	+2.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,313	61	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	92,405	75	40%	+30.2
Households (ACS)	2,026	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-44.4	7	35%	+2.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	74	25%	+18.6
Population (ACS)	5,313	61	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	92,405	75	20%	+15.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 8 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-44.4	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	-37.5	8	20%	+1.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 4 · Dessert 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alternative Grounds Caffe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	17 Main St	open
B&B BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	105 Telegraph Rd	open
Darrell's Place	Casual dining	American	90 Telegraph Rd	open
Liten Buffel	Winery / distillery / taproom		8822 Pearson Rd	open
Mr. Bond's Diner	Casual dining	American · Pizza	12 Main St	open
Parker's Pit LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	9998 Ridge Rd	open
Perry's Ice Cream	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	9950 Telegraph Rd	open
Pony's Irish Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	23 Main St	open
Portside Cafe And Bakery	Café	Coffee	12 Main St	open
Sully's Saloon	Casual dining · Bar			open
Sunset Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated)		139 Telegraph Rd	open
The Rolling Pin Custom Cake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9333 Ridge Rd	open
Village Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4 State St	open
Xroo	Dessert	Dessert	20 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	12	8	4	2	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14105. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14067	4.1 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.