BMIE Market 14092

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,247 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±582 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,890 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,086 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,033 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,218 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,968 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$977 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$279,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,737 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14092
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-17.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+35.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 21–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14092. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.5	63	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.8	38	35%	+13.2
Market Momentum Score	23.0	23	25%	+5.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,247	71	40%	+28.5
Median household income (ACS)	72,218	51	40%	+20.2
Households (ACS)	4,890	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.8	16	35%	+5.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.5	31	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	10,247	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	72,218	51	20%	+10.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-17.9	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-14.8	16	30%	+4.8
20-year restaurant growth	35.3	56	20%	+11.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (55)

By cuisine

American 14 · Coffee 8 · Dessert 7 · Italian 7 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 5 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 3 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Casual dining 14 · Bar 12 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Quick service 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
700 Bistro & Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 Center St	open
Apple Granny	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	433 Center St	open
Battle Flag Tavern	Bar		444 Center St	open
Bella Rose Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1243 Ridge Rd	open
Big Guys Pizzeria and more	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	105 Portage Rd	open
Bistro Avera	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	555 Center St	open
Blue Cave Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		810 Center St	open
Brewed And Bottled Craft Beer Shop	Bar		444 Center St	open
Brickyard Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		436 Center St	open
Carmelo's Coat of Arms	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	425 Center St	open
Casa Antica	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	490 Center St	open
Cask and Cow	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	840 Center St	open
China Pearl China Moon Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	457 Center St	open
Como Deli On Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	555 Center St	open
Dash of Divinity	Dessert	Dessert	345 Center St	open
Di Camillo Bakery Di Camillo Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Italian · Dessert	535 Center St	open
Favorites Pizza and Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	781 Cayuga St	open
Flip Burger Flip Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	105 Portage Rd	open
Fresh Start Cafe & Market	Café	Coffee	402 Center St Inside Grandpaws Plaza	open
Gallo Coal Fire Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	402 Center St	open
gather Restaurant\|Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		453 Center St	open
Griffon Brewery and Gastropub Griffon Brewery and Gastropub - Lewiston	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		115 S Water St	open
Hastings Hospitality Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 N Water St	open
Hibbard's Custard	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	105 Portage Rd	open
Hill-vue	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1439 Ridge Rd	open
Husky Tusky BBQ Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse · Burgers	5446 Walmore Rd	open
Hustler's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	800 Center St	open
Jane’s Cafe Express	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	115 Portage Rd	open
Just Desserts by Aimee	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	476 Center St	open
Lewiston Village Pub	Bar		840 Center St.	open
Macri's Italian Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	810 Center St	open
Mad Hatter Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Vegetarian · Coffee	442 Center St	open
Mangia Cafe And Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	621 Center St	open
Nayurhe	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Pizza · Bakery	5611 Garlow Rd	open
Niagara Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		602 Park Ln	open
Olcott Lobster Co-Lewiston	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	755 Center St	open
Orange Cat Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	703 Center St	open
Pizza Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5126 Garlow Rd	open
Smith Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	790 Center St	open
Southwater Company Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 S Water St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	820 Center St	open
Syros Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · American	869 Cayuga St	open
The Lewiston Stone House	Casual dining · Bar		755 Center St	open
The Silo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	115 N Water St	open
The Spicey Pickle	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	463 Center St	open
The Village Bake Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	417 Center St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5795 LEWISTON ROAD	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	906 Center St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	790 Center St	open
Tin Pan Alley	Bar · Casual dining	American	775 Cayuga St	open
Tres Dulces	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	5126 Garlow Rd	open
Villa Coffee House	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	769 Cayuga St	open
Vincenzo's Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	742 Center St	open
Water Street Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	115 S Water St	open
Edwin Mellen Press	Restaurant (service type not stated)		240 Portage Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	24	22	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	19	19	11	6	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	10	2	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	20	19	12	3	4	1	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	10	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	9	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	21	12	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	22	21	14	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	22	21	14	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	21	20	11	5	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	20	19	10	5	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	22	20	10	4	6	2	NAICS2007
2010	22	20	9	6	5	2	NAICS2007
2011	29	26	11	8	7	3	NAICS2007
2012	31	24	11	7	6	2	NAICS2012
2013	36	27	14	7	6	4	NAICS2012
2014	34	27	15	6	6	2	NAICS2012
2015	37	30	17	7	6	2	NAICS2012
2016	36	29	16	7	6	1	NAICS2012
2017	33	28	17	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	33	28	17	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	28	17	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	27	16	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	28	17	7	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	27	16	6	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	31	23	14	4	5	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14092. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14109	3.3 mi	2	1997
14305	3.8 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.