BMIE Market 14305

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,696 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,048 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,214 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,898 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,139 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$51,004 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±80 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$126,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14305
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-55.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14305. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.7	54	40%	+21.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.5	47	35%	+16.3
Market Momentum Score	11.2	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,696	78	40%	+31.3
Median household income (ACS)	51,004	16	40%	+6.4
Households (ACS)	7,214	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	35%	+5.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	16,696	78	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	51,004	16	20%	+3.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	30%	+4.3
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 9 · Coffee 4 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 7 · Café 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Little Taste of Philly	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1051 Cleveland Ave	open
Angie’s Soul Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	2301 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Anthony’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	2998 Niagara Ave	open
Bayboy's Ribhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2301 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1611 Main St	open
Dave's Last Chance	Bar		4900 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Dirty Bird Chicken N' Waffles LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Sandwiches	252 56th St	open
Eshal Halal Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1051 Cleveland Ave	open
George's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2910 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Gwyneth Marban	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3734 West Virginia Avenue	open
Kelly's On The Green	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4343 Porter Rd	open
Knack's Parkview Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	2110 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Levick Sistahs Sweets & Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		722 Pierce Ave	open
Maida's Toast And Roast Café	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	4823 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Main Street Cafe	Casual dining	American	2021 Main St	open
MAK Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	222 Bisgrove Road	open
Max's Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3030 Highland Ave	open
Mister B's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2201 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Mr Sepe's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2107 Main St	open
Neighborhood Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		3964 Lockport Rd	open
Niagara Guys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2021 Main St	open
Partners	Bar		2105 Main St	open
Porky's Hotdogs	Quick service	Hot dogs · Burgers	1416 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Romana's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	4900 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Sammy's Pizzeria Sammy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1400 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Soliday's Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		3964 Lockport Rd	open
SoulFood4Real	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2301 Hyde Park Blvd	open
St Angelo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4709 Military Rd	open
Suburban Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2909 Hyde Park Blvd	open
Taste Of Grace Cafe'	Café	Coffee	1609 22nd St	open
The Atmosphere Bar Grill and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		1414 Main St	open
The Cmm Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6520 Lockport Rd	open
Three Over Restaurant and Bar	Bar	American	4343 Porter Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	4700 Military Rd	open
Unique Cakes by Ann	Bakery	Bakery	2900 McKoon Ave	open
VFW Niagara Falls Post No 54	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2772 Main St	open
Hawgdog	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4900 Saunders Settlement Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	31	20	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1995	30	20	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1996	34	23	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	29	22	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	23	15	7	6	2	8	NAICS1997
1999	20	12	4	6	2	8	NAICS1997
2000	21	11	4	5	2	9	NAICS1997
2001	20	13	5	6	2	7	NAICS1997
2002	24	15	9	5	1	9	NAICS1997
2003	22	15	8	6	1	7	NAICS2002
2004	20	14	7	6	1	6	NAICS2002
2005	20	14	6	6	2	6	NAICS2002
2006	18	12	5	6	1	6	NAICS2002
2007	16	10	4	6	—	6	NAICS2002
2008	15	9	3	5	1	6	NAICS2007
2009	17	12	4	8	—	5	NAICS2007
2010	16	10	3	7	—	6	NAICS2007
2011	18	11	5	6	—	6	NAICS2007
2012	18	13	6	5	2	5	NAICS2012
2013	17	11	5	5	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	16	10	5	5	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	15	10	6	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2016	18	9	6	3	—	5	NAICS2012
2017	20	12	7	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	20	12	8	4	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	19	12	7	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	19	13	8	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	20	13	7	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	18	11	6	5	—	5	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14305. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14109	1.2 mi	2	1997
14301	1.9 mi	31	2023
14302	2.4 mi	1	2010
14303	2.8 mi	36	2023
14092	3.8 mi	23	2023
14304	4.0 mi	86	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.