BMIE Market 16059

Butler County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,062 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,738 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,283 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,828 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±652 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$408,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,416 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	26.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16059
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16059. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.3	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.8	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	60.9	61	25%	+15.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,062	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	110,828	87	40%	+34.8
Households (ACS)	3,971	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	81	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	10,062	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	110,828	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Natural American Natural	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5051 Adair Ave	open
Briquettas - Valencia, PA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5031 Adair Ave	open
Butler Brew Works Middlesex Taproom	Brewery / taproom		5031 Adair Ave	open
Freya Jane’s Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4075 Adair Ave	open
Hammer's Frozen Custard & Subs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches · American	1192 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Jimis' Sunnyside Up Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1318 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Lettopalenas Pizza and Italian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1155 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Liv's Beauty Brew	Brewery / taproom		1817 Constitution Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		1301 Robert William Dr	open
Peppino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4081 Adair Ave	open
The Bloom Cafe at Quality Gardens, LLC	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	409 PA-228	open
The Scoreboard Restaurant & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6179 State Hwy 8	open
Tristate Bakery Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		125 Old Rte 8 S	open
Valencia Donut Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1177 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Willees Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		11150 Babcock Blvd	open
Hoover's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1441 Pittsburgh Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	4	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	2	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	3	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	3	1	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	3	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	—	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16059. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
15007	3.9 mi	3	2023
16056	4.7 mi	7	2023
15044	4.9 mi	34	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.