BMIE Market 16056

Butler County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,232 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±481 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,791 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,185 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,978 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±140 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$302,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,314 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16056
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16056. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.5	57	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.7	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	47.2	47	25%	+11.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,232	58	40%	+23.1
Median household income (ACS)	75,893	57	40%	+22.6
Households (ACS)	1,760	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.5	47	25%	+11.9
Population (ACS)	4,232	58	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	75,893	57	20%	+11.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	-12.5	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · American 3 · Bakery 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Asian 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Korean 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bastin Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		115 N Isabella St	open
Cafe Contrary	Café · Coffee shop	American · Coffee	146 Pittsburgh St	open
Cook's Cages And Clubs	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	554 W Main St	open
Kelley's Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	130 W Main St	open
Kiki & Lolo's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	105 N Rebecca St	open
Mainstreet Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	265 W Main St	open
Mainstreet.Bakeshop.Sprankles	Bakery	Bakery	270 W Water St	open
Mama Made Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	384 Saxonburg Blvd	open
Novotny's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	105 State St	open
Pocha by Kye-Won	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · Asian	270 W Water St	open
Saxon Country Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	568 Saxonburg Blvd	open
Saxonburg Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	211 W Main St	open
Saxonburg Farmers Market	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		572 W Main St	open
Saxonburg Fireman's Club	Bar		155 Pittsburgh St	open
Saxonburg Heritage Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		215 W Main St	open
Saxonburg Hotel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	220 West Main Street	open
Selenite Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	163 Monks Rd	open
Shepherd's Coffee Company - Sprankle's	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	270 W Water St	open
Speckled Hen Chocolate Company	Dessert	Dessert	656 Saxonburg Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	114 Pittsburgh St	open
Whats Cooking On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)		210 W Main St	open
Zacherl's Tavern & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		180 Butler Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16056. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16059	4.7 mi	8	2023
16055	4.9 mi	14	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.