BMIE Market 16117
Lawrence County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 15,786 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±723 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,281 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 17,185 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,914 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $73,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,624 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 48.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $153,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,889 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 36.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16117 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 15.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +9.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -17.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +15.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 29 (range 25–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.64) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16117. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.64, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 67.7 | 68 | 40% | +27.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58.2 | 58 | 35% | +20.4 |
| Market Momentum Score | 39.8 | 40 | 25% | +10.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 15,786 | 77 | 40% | +31.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 73,045 | 52 | 40% | +20.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,281 | 80 | 20% | +16.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 9.5 | 54 | 35% | +18.7 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 14.6 | 54 | 25% | +13.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 15,786 | 77 | 20% | +15.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 73,045 | 52 | 20% | +10.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 9.5 | 54 | 30% | +16.1 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -17.9 | 14 | 20% | +2.9 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (58)
By cuisine
American 11 · Pizza 11 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Hot dogs 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Bar 11 · Dessert 11 · Bakery 7 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Ward Sanctuary | Casual dining · Bar | American | 510 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Albo's Corner | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 100 Spring Ave | open |
| B & B Express | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 324 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Barry's Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 105 Line Ave | open |
| Big Shot Bob's House of Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · American | 810 2nd St | open |
| Big Shot Bob's House of Wings (Ellwood City) | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 810 2nd St | open |
| Bob’s Big Belly Deli & Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 507 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Breakers Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 183 Portersville Rd | open | |
| Breaking Bread Co. | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee · American | 530 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Brighton Hot Dog Shoppe Brighton Hot Dog Shoppe- Rochester, Vanport, Moon Twp. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American | 620 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 627 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Candito's Pizzeria & Ice Cream Parlor | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1025 Old Zelienople Rd | open |
| Chief's Pretzels | Bakery | Bakery | 201 Circle Way | open |
| China Buffet | Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 277 PA-288 | open |
| Chive | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls | 422 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Chris' Wolverine Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Quick service | Pizza · American | 2265 River Rd | open |
| Chris' Wolverine, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2265 River Rd | open | |
| Christy's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 1665 PA-65 | open |
| Crystal's Cakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 526 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Custom Cakes by Jodie | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 201 Circle Way | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 162 Portersville Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 208 5th St | open |
| Ellwood City Candy Co | Dessert | 715 Lawrence Ave | open | |
| Ellwood Ice | Dessert | Dessert | 504 Lawrence Ave | open |
| First Street Diner | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 212 1st St | open | |
| Fitzgibbon Meadery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 536 Lawrence Ave | open | |
| FlourGirl Delights | Dessert | Dessert | 309 Pershing St | open |
| Fox's Pizza Den Fox's Pizza Den & Arcade | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1669 PA-65 | open |
| Hog Wild | Bar | 703 Lawrence Ave | open | |
| Hunter Brothers Coffee | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 229 Portersville Rd | open |
| J&T's Drive-in Custard | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1257 Mercer Rd | open |
| Johnny's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 609 4th St | open |
| Johnny's Pizza Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 609 FOURTH St | open |
| Katy's Homestyle Bakery | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 429 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Keystone Bar | Bar | 210 1st St | open | |
| Kimmel's Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 302 Franklin Ave | open |
| Koehler Brewery Pub | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 130 Wampum Ave | open | |
| Lin Taste of China | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 427 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Main Street Sports Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 708 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Mile Nine Enterprises Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 708 Lawrence Ave | open | |
| MyHouse Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 403 Lawrence Ave | open | |
| National Grind Coffee & Tea Shop | Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 425 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Nico Luciano's Nico's Pizza Pasta | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 813 Woodside Ave | open |
| Oak Grove Inn | Bar · Casual dining | 289 Portersville Rd | open | |
| Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 128 Spring Ave | open |
| Red Hot Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · American | 219 6th St | open |
| Ronaldo's Pizza King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 810 2nd St | open |
| Shakespeare's Restaurant & Pub | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1495 Mercer Rd | open |
| Smokin' Steer BBQ & Catering | Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 324 Wampum Ave | open |
| Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 265 State Rte 288, Rm #1316 | open |
| TCM of Ellwood City McDonald's | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Burgers · American | 15 5th St | open |
| The Elder Owl | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 307 5th St | open | |
| The Shelby Bar | Bar | 26 Fountain Ave | open | |
| The Time Brewpub | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 600 Mount Vernon Dr | open | |
| Venezia Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 521 Lawrence Ave | open |
| Vinny's Pizza And Restaurant Vinny's Pizza Foodtruck | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 620 Beaver Ave | open |
| Weisz Hazel Manor | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 215 North St | open | |
| Pig Iron Bbq | Bar | 901 Millview St | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 27 | 20 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 23 | 17 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 30 | 22 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 29 | 22 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 34 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 37 | 25 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 10 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 35 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 10 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 40 | 28 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 10 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 39 | 28 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 9 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 38 | 30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 7 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 37 | 28 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 37 | 28 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 35 | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 32 | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 32 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 30 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 9 | — | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 28 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 28 | 23 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 30 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 33 | 27 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 33 | 26 | 11 | 13 | — | 5 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 30 | 23 | 9 | 12 | — | 5 | NAICS2022 |