BMIE Market 16157

Lawrence County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,840 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±311 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,254 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,477 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,532 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,345 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$158,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,249 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 16157
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2007 → 2012, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2012, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 0–1) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1997–2016 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16157. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1997–2016, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.2	43	40%	+17.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.6	53	35%	+18.4
Market Momentum Score	32.3	32	25%	+8.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,840	51	40%	+20.5
Median household income (ACS)	60,345	30	40%	+12.0
Households (ACS)	1,254	53	20%	+10.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.5	96	25%	+24.1
Population (ACS)	2,840	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	60,345	30	20%	+6.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (5)

By cuisine

American 1 · Coffee 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Bar 3 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Chewton Polish Club	Bar		438 Oswald St	open
Jata's Diner	Casual dining	American	323 Main St	open
Paramount Cafe	Bar		400 Beaver St	open
Tin Cup Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1080 Smiley Stop Rd	open
Wampum Coffee and Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	323 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	2	1	—	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16157. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16160	3.2 mi	1	2010
16141	3.5 mi	1	2015
16136	3.7 mi	1	2016
16117	4.2 mi	23	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.